Vegas GDS Plays: Who to Start in RD 1

Round 1 kicks off at Allegiant Stadium with two games on March 1: Knights vs Cowboys and Bulldogs vs Dragons. The remaining six games follow the next weekend, but team lists for those matches haven't dropped yet. That matters. You can't make informed calls on players you don't know are starting. So this piece focuses entirely on the four confirmed squads and which cards are worth locking in early.

With rolling lockout in play, the Vegas games lock before the rest of the round. That gives you a strategic edge: lock in your Vegas plays with confidence now, then adjust the rest of your squad once the remaining team lists are confirmed.

A note on this piece: There are no narratives, hot takes, or gut feels here. Every recommendation is built entirely on 2025 GDS scoring data, positional averages at each player's named position, and opposition matchup numbers pulled directly from the stats. The numbers tell the story. We just read them.

Opposition Matchup Breakdown

The table below shows how many GDS points each defence conceded per position in 2025 (starting 13 only), compared to the league average. Each column represents what players from the opposing team face when they play that defence.

We're aware that many players have changed clubs in the off season, so the opposition matchup data may not be exactly the same as last season. This table is a guideline to provide insights on how each position performed against these opponents in 2025.

GDS Pos	Lg Avg	vs Cowboys	vs Knights	vs Dragons	vs Bulldogs
FLB	46.6	48.2  Favourable	49.0  Favourable	52.8  Premium	36.1  Poor
HLF	42.4	49.8  Premium	44.6  Favourable	46.1  Favourable	39.6  Unfavourable
CTR	38.5	41.3  Favourable	43.4  Premium	34.5  Unfavourable	34.8  Unfavourable
WNG	37.6	41.6  Favourable	40.4  Favourable	36.9  Neutral	38.8  Neutral
EDG	41.6	42.8  Neutral	41.8  Neutral	42.4  Neutral	39.4  Unfavourable
HOK	41.1	41.9  Neutral	38.1  Unfavourable	42.8  Favourable	38.9  Unfavourable
MID	41.6	43.6  Favourable	42.3  Neutral	41.8  Neutral	43.7  Favourable

Knights players vs Cowboys: The Cowboys leaked points everywhere in 2025. The premium matchup is HLF (49.8, +7.4 above league avg). The worst spot is HOK, but even that is neutral.

Cowboys players vs Knights: The premium matchup is CTR (43.4, +4.9 above league avg). The worst spot is HOK (38.1), which is unfavourable for dummy halves.

Bulldogs players vs Dragons: The premium matchup is FLB (52.8, +6.2 above league avg). The worst spot is CTR (34.5), which is unfavourable.

Dragons players vs Bulldogs: The toughest matchup in Vegas. Five of seven positions are unfavourable or worse. The worst spot is FLB (36.1, -10.5 below league avg), which is poor. The only favourable matchup is MID (43.7).

The Plays

High Upside

Jacob Preston (EDG, Bulldogs) played 22 games at second row for the Bulldogs in 2025, averaging 58.5 GDS points per game (ranked 3rd of 61 EDGs, range: 22 to 104). He posted 103 run metres and 37 tackles per game at 79 minutes. Twelve tries, 3 try assists, and 11 line breaks. Faces a neutral EDG matchup against the Dragons (42.4). A 58.5 average from an EDG is the highest positional average of any player in the Vegas games.

Dylan Lucas (EDG, Knights) played 12 games at second row for the Knights in 2025, averaging 58.3 GDS points per game (ranked 4th of 61 EDGs, range: 35 to 91). He posted 145 run metres and 38 tackles per game with 5 tries, 7 line breaks, and 78-minute durability. A 35-point floor across 12 games is rock solid. Faces a neutral EDG matchup against the Cowboys (42.8). The matchup doesn't need to help when you're averaging 58.

Fletcher Sharpe (HLF, Knights) played 12 games at five-eighth for the Knights in 2025, averaging 56.3 GDS points per game (ranked 3rd of 52 HLFs, range: 25 to 90). He scored 10 tries with 7 line breaks, averaging 96 run metres and 25 tackles per game at that position. Faces the premium HLF matchup against the Cowboys (49.8 conceded, +7.4 above league avg). That's a massive matchup boost for a half who already sits inside the top 3.

Scott Drinkwater (FLB, Cowboys) played all 24 games at fullback for the Cowboys in 2025, averaging 55.5 GDS points per game (ranked 5th of 24 FLBs, range: 11 to 118). He posted 148 run metres, 4.4 tackle breaks, and 129 kick metres per game. He contributed 11 tries, 24 try assists, 16 line breaks, and 21 line break assists. He was also the primary goalkicker with 70 goals across the season. Faces a favourable FLB matchup against the Knights (49.0 conceded).

Tom Dearden (HLF, Cowboys) played 13 games at halfback for the Cowboys in 2025, averaging 53.2 GDS points per game (ranked 7th of 52 HLFs, range: 21 to 95). He posted 113 run metres and 23 tackles per game from halfback. Six tries, 6 try assists, 9 line break assists, and 7 forced dropouts. His output jumps significantly at halfback (224 kick metres per game) compared to when he plays five-eighth (43.6 avg GDS). Named at halfback for Round 1. Faces a favourable HLF matchup against the Knights (44.6 conceded).

Jacob Kiraz (WNG, Bulldogs) played 16 games at winger for the Bulldogs in 2025, averaging 50.2 GDS points per game (ranked 4th of 67 WNGs, range: 26 to 116). He posted 181 run metres, 5.5 tackle breaks, and 3.9 offloads per game. Ten tries and 12 line breaks from winger. Faces a neutral WNG matchup against the Dragons (36.9). The matchup is a non-factor, but Kiraz's combination of metres, tackle breaks, and try scoring gives him one of the safest floors and highest ceilings among WNGs. A 26-point floor with a 116-point ceiling.

Solid

Toby Couchman (MID, Dragons) played 7 games at prop for the Dragons in 2025, averaging 55.4 GDS points per game (ranked 5th of 87 MIDs, range: 27 to 75). He posted 101 run metres, 41 tackles, and 2.2 offloads per game at 55 minutes. That's an enormous output for a prop, particularly one averaging under an hour on the field. Faces a favourable MID matchup against the Bulldogs (43.7 conceded). MID is the one position where the Bulldogs defence was above league average, which helps. The 7-game sample is the concern, but if he starts at prop and gets 50+ minutes, the numbers suggest he's one of the highest points per minute forwards in the comp.

Valentine Holmes (CTR, Dragons) played 14 games at centre for the Dragons in 2025, averaging 53.4 GDS points per game (ranked 3rd of 47 CTRs, range: 34 to 86). He posted 161 run metres, 3.5 tackle breaks, and 10 tackles. Six tries, 9 try assists, 9 line breaks, 9 line break assists. He's also the Dragons' goalkicker with 45 goals across the season. Faces an unfavourable CTR matchup against the Bulldogs (34.8 conceded). That's a headwind, but Holmes's goalkicking means he scores points even when the defence shuts down attacking opportunities. His 34-point floor held up against every team he faced in 2025. The kicking makes him matchup-proof.

Braidon Burns (WNG, Cowboys) played 10 games at winger for the Cowboys in 2025, averaging 52.5 GDS points per game (ranked 2nd of 67 WNGs, range: 8 to 77). He posted 184 run metres and 7.9 tackle breaks per game with 6 tries and 6 line breaks from winger. Faces a favourable WNG matchup against the Knights (40.4 conceded, above league avg of 37.6). The per-game output at winger is excellent and the matchup helps. The 8-point low is the only blemish. Named at winger for Round 1 and locked into the starting side.

Kalyn Ponga (FLB, Knights) played 13 games at fullback for the Knights in 2025, averaging 46.5 GDS points per game (ranked 10th of 24 FLBs, range: 25 to 97). He posted 162 run metres with 9 try assists, 11 line break assists, and 6 forced dropouts. He also kicked 19 goals across the season. Ponga is back healthy after missing preseason game time due to a foot injury. He didn't feature in either of the Knights' trial matches, so there's no preseason form to reference. Faces a favourable FLB matchup against the Cowboys (48.2 conceded). When fit and on the park, the floor is decent and the matchup helps. The injury concern is the only reason he sits in solid rather than high upside. If he gets through 80 minutes, the upside is there.

Damien Cook (HOK, Dragons) played 23 games at hooker for the Dragons in 2025, averaging 47.3 GDS points per game (ranked 5th of 24 HOKs, range: 23 to 72). He posted 42 tackles per game at 66 minutes. One try, 4 try assists, and 4 line breaks. Faces an unfavourable HOK matchup against the Bulldogs (38.9 conceded). The matchup is a headwind, but Cook's tackle volume (42 per game) gives him a floor that's hard to suppress. The highest averaging HOK in the Vegas games by a comfortable margin.

Risky

Connor Tracey (FLB, Bulldogs) played 24 games at fullback for the Bulldogs in 2025, averaging 42.5 GDS points per game (ranked 17th of 24 FLBs, range: 15 to 76). He posted 200 run metres and 3.7 tackle breaks per game with 12 try assists and 16 line break assists. Faces the premium FLB matchup against the Dragons (52.8 conceded, +6.2 above league avg). That's the biggest positional matchup uplift in Vegas, and it lands directly on Tracey's position. If he plays 80 at fullback, this matchup could push him well above his season average.

Rolling Lockout Strategy

The Vegas games lock on March 1. The remaining six Round 1 games run from March 5 to 8. That means you'll have confirmed team lists for every other game before you need to finalise your full squad. Use the Vegas games to lock in the positions where you're confident in the output, and leave the rest flexible.

Preston, Lucas, Sharpe, Drinkwater, Dearden, and Kiraz are all strong enough to lock in now regardless of what the later team lists bring. Ponga and Burns are solid plays with favourable matchups. Holmes and Cook are matchup-proof through kicking and tackle volume. Couchman's points per minute output makes him worth backing at MID. Tracey is the calculated gamble, but the premium FLB matchup gives him a genuine shot at outperforming his season average.

The key principle: don't force a Vegas player into your squad just because they're playing first. Lock in the clear starters with proven output. Leave the marginal calls until you have the full picture from the remaining team lists.