David Fifita: Back to His Best or Buying Into the Hype?

David Fifita was once the most devastating edge forward in Rugby League. A Dally M Second Rower of the Year. An eight game Origin player by 23. The kind of athlete who could rip a game open with a single carry. Then 2025 happened. Three ankle surgeries. Eight games. Benched at the Titans. Shipped out. Now he is at the Rabbitohs under Wayne Bennett, the coach who gave him his debut as an 18 year old, and the hype machine is running at full speed.

The question for GDS coaches: is this a genuine bounce back play, or are we falling for the vibes? We pulled the data to find out.

The GDS Career Arc: From Elite to Invisible

The numbers tell a story that the highlight reels do not. Here is Fifita's full GDS career trajectory.

Season	Club	Games	Avg GDS	Avg Mins	Avg Run Metres	Avg TB	Tries
2019	Broncos	23	45.9	56.1	96.6	5.0	7
2020	Broncos	9	53.1	75.8	128.3	5.0	4
2021	Titans	21	64.5	66.2	127.2	7.1	17
2022	Titans	18	49.6	70.5	112.3	4.4	7
2023	Titans	22	60.9	74.7	145.1	6.2	8
2024	Titans	20	59.4	72.6	144.9	6.1	4
2025	Titans	8	34.3	47.9	80.8	3.5	1

The peak is obvious. 2021: 64.5 average GDS, 17 tries, 7.1 tackle breaks per game. That is a genuine round winner. He followed it with a dip in 2022 (49.6) before bouncing back to 60.9 in 2023 when he won the Dally M Second Rower of the Year. So there is a pattern here: Fifita has shown he can recover from bad seasons. 2024 was solid at 59.4 GDS with elite post contact metres (53.7 per game). Then 2025 fell off a cliff.

But 2025 was not a form problem. It was a role problem and an injury problem. Three ankle surgeries across the year. Only eight games. And the ones he did play tell a very different story depending on whether Des Hasler started him or benched him.

The 2025 Split: Starter vs Bench

This is the data point that matters most for projecting 2026. In his eight games for the Titans in 2025, Fifita was used two different ways.

Role	Games	Avg GDS	Avg Mins	Avg Run Metres	Avg TB
Second Row (starter)	2	70.5	69.5	130.0	6.0
Interchange (bench)	6	22.2	40.7	64.3	2.3

Read that again. When Fifita started in the second row in 2025, he averaged 70.5 GDS. That would have been the highest average of any EDG player in the competition if sustained across a full season. When he came off the bench, he averaged 22.2. That is a 3.2x difference in GDS output based purely on role.

His Round 6 game against the Dragons stands out: 92 GDS, 203 run metres, 80 post contact metres, 4 offloads, 10 tackle breaks. That is not a player who has lost his ability. That is an elite athlete trapped in the wrong role at a club that had given up on the season.

The Top 3 EDG Benchmark

The question is clear: can Fifita get back to being a top 3 GDS Fantasy EDG forward? Here is what that looked like in 2025.

Rank	Player	Games	Avg GDS	Avg Mins	Avg Run Metres	Tries
1	Hudson Young	20	58.4	78.5	144.9	10
2	Dylan Lucas	13	56.9	77.8	143.2	5
3	Jacob Preston	20	56.7	79.3	99.0	11
4	Keaon Koloamatangi	20	55.1	75.8	152.8	4
5	Matty Nicholson	10	54.6	77.3	75.9	5
6	Eliesa Katoa	23	52.7	79.8	141.3	12
7	Beau Fermor	24	52.6	79.4	126.3	10

The top 3 threshold sat at 56.7 GDS (Jacob Preston). The common thread among the top performers is minutes: every player in the top 7 averaged 75+ minutes per game. That is 80 minute second row football, not 40 minute bench stints.

Now look at Fifita's history against that threshold. His 2021 peak (64.5) would have ranked him first among all EDG players in 2025. His 2023 (60.9) and 2024 (59.4) would have both been comfortably top 3. He has shown he can consistently produce at that level when given 70+ minutes in the starting second row. The question is not whether Fifita has the talent. It is whether he gets the role and game time.

The Bennett Factor

This is where the projection gets interesting. Wayne Bennett gave Fifita his debut at the Broncos in 2018. He has wanted to coach him again for years, having tried to sign him at both Souths and the Dolphins on multiple occasions. Bennett himself publicly stated he believes the best of Fifita is still ahead.

Bennett's Rabbitohs are building a stacked forward pack: Cameron Murray returns after missing almost all of 2025 with an Achilles injury, Keaon Koloamatangi averaged 55.1 GDS last season (4th among EDG players), Jai Arrow played all 24 games, and Tevita Tatola adds prop depth. The arrival of Fifita gives Bennett a second row of Fifita, Murray, and Koloamatangi. That is arguably the best edge rotation in the competition.

Critically, Bennett has no reason to bench Fifita. This is a coach who specifically targeted him. Souths need his attacking output. The starting second row role is his to lose, which means 70 to 80 minutes per game. And as the data shows, that is where Fifita becomes elite.

In the preseason trial against Manly, Fifita looked exactly like the player GDS coaches want him to be. 13 runs for 142 metres before getting a break early in the second half. Cameron Murray said he was 'refreshed, fit and fully committed'. Jai Arrow called him 'the X-factor we need'. The early signs are all positive.

The Risk: It Is Real

Three ankle surgeries in 12 months cannot be ignored. Fifita has only played eight NRL games since Round 8 of 2025. While the preseason data looks encouraging, one trial game is not a season. Soft tissue injuries have a habit of recurring, especially for a 110kg power forward who relies on explosive acceleration.

There is also the consistency question. Even in his best seasons, Fifita's output fluctuated. In 2024, his first half average was 66.0 GDS but his second half dropped to 53.9 GDS despite playing similar minutes (70.6 vs 74.2). The run metres held up but tries dried up (3 in the first half, 1 in the second). Fifita has always been a player who can drift in and out of games, and when the tries stop coming, his GDS output dips noticeably.

That said, the ankle issues explain the 2025 disaster. This was not a player in decline. It was a player who physically could not get on the field, and when he did, was being managed off the bench on one ankle. The structural problem (injury, role, environment) has been addressed. The talent was never the question.

The Projection

Scenario	Avg GDS	Reasoning
Bull case	60-65	Starts every game at 75+ mins. Healthy ankles. Bennett unlocks the 2021/2023 version. Tries return. Top 1-2 EDG.
Base case	52-58	Starts most games, some load management. Solid output but tries inconsistent. Top 3-5 EDG.
Bear case	40-48	Ankles flare up. Loses starting spot. Minutes drop below 65. Falls outside top 7 EDG.

The base case of 52 to 58 GDS puts Fifita in the top 3 to 5 EDG range. That is based on his 2023 to 2024 output (59.4 to 60.9) with a slight haircut for the ankle uncertainty. If the tries come, and Bennett gets 75+ minutes out of him, the upside is a return to that 60+ GDS level that makes him the best EDG in the competition.

The bear case is the ankle concern. But even there, his 2022 dip year (49.6 GDS over 18 games at 70.5 minutes) would have still been top 7 among EDG players in 2025. Fifita's floor when healthy and playing 70+ minutes is higher than most edge forwards' ceiling.

The Call - "The data says buy But with eyes wide open"

Fifita's 2025 was a role and injury problem, not a talent problem. The evidence is right there in the starter vs bench split: 70.5 GDS starting, 22.2 off the bench. Bennett will start him. Bennett will give him 75+ minutes. Bennett has wanted this player for years and built a forward pack around him.

The top 3 EDG question comes down to health. If the ankles hold up and he plays 18+ games at 70+ minutes, Fifita's track record says he will produce somewhere between 55 and 65 GDS. That is top 3 EDG territory. The talent is not overhyped. The 2025 numbers are. Context matters, and the context has completely changed.

At 26, Fifita is entering the prime window for a second rower. The best coach in the game has him. The role is locked. The forward pack around him is elite. Get the card before the market prices bounce back.