2026 Breakout Candidates: The Numbers Behind the Next Fantasy Premiums

Every GDS Fantasy premium started somewhere. Before they were sitting comfortably in the top 10 at their position, they were the kid averaging 60 who flashed a ceiling game, earned a role change, and suddenly looked like a different player. The data always tells the story before the market catches up.

We pulled the 2024 to 2025 progression data for every player under 24 and filtered for significant GDS scoring jumps. Then we investigated why. Role changes, TOG increases, CBA growth. The question for each player is simple: can they crack the top 10 at their position in 2026? That is the threshold where cards become harder to get.

For context, here are the 2025 top-10 GDS cutoffs: DEF 109.8 (Christian Salem, 10th), MID 118.7 (Matt Rowell, 10th), FWD 98.8 (Jy Simpkin, 10th), and RUC 116.6 (Darcy Cameron, 5th).

The Breakout Candidates at a Glance

Finn Callaghan (GWS Giants, MID)

GDS Upside Rating: 9.5/10

Age in 2026: 22  |  2025 GDS Avg: 115.5  |  2024 GDS Avg: 87.3  |  Jump: +28.2 (+32.3%)

Callaghan is the closest player on this list to already being there. His full-season average of 115.5 sits just 3.2 GDS points off the top-10 MID threshold. But the full-season number is conservative. His second half averaged 122.5 GDS, up from 108.5 in the first half. That second-half rate would have ranked him 6th among all midfielders in 2025.

The reason for the jump is structural. His CBA share grew from 18.3 per game in the first half to 25.6 in the second half. GWS moved him into a primary ball-winning role, and the scoring followed. That is not a hot streak. That is a role change. We project from the post-change data.

For age curve context: Nick Daicos averaged 125.7 GDS at age 21 and 128.7 at 22. Max Holmes averaged 111.4 at 21 and 119.9 at 22. Callaghan's second-half rate of 122.5 at age 21 puts him right between those two trajectories. The comparison is favourable.

On a Diamond card with 1.4x PSM, a 122 base average becomes 171 GDS per round. That is league-winning output from your midfield.

The call: Strong evidence. Callaghan cracks the top-10 MID comfortably in 2026 and has the profile to push top 5. Buy his card now. By mid-season the window will be closed.

Daniel Curtin (Adelaide Crows, MID)

GDS Upside Rating: 9.0/10

Age in 2026: 20  |  2025 GDS Avg: 76.4  |  2024 GDS Avg: 38.0  |  Jump: +38.4 (+101.1%)

Curtin's full-season average of 76.4 looks a long way off the top-10 MID threshold. But the data tells a clear role change story. He spent the first nine rounds as an interchange player (named INT), averaging 52.0% TOG and 54.2 GDS. From Round 11 onwards he was named on the wing (WR) in every game, and his numbers transformed: TOG jumped to 83.8% and he averaged 97.2 GDS across his last 13 games as a named player.

That is not a hot streak. Adelaide gave him a permanent role on the wing, his time on ground increased by over 30 percentage points, and his disposals climbed from 10.5 to 16.3 per game. The role change is the new reality. We project from the post-change data.

At age 20, the growth runway is enormous. For comparison: Matt Rowell averaged 108.8 GDS at age 22 and jumped to 118.7 at 23 to crack the top-10 MID. Curtin is already averaging 97.2 as a named player at age 19. If he takes a similar age-curve step, he is pushing 110+ by 2027.

The call: Strong evidence for the role change, but 2026 is not the year he cracks the top-10 MID. That is a 2027 play. The reason to buy the card now: if he sustains 95 to 105 GDS as a full-time player in 2026, the card becomes significantly harder to acquire before his true breakout year. This is a buy-and-hold.

Sam Banks (Richmond Tigers, DEF)

GDS Upside Rating: 8.5/10'

Age in 2026: 22  |  2025 GDS Avg: 94.7  |  2024 GDS Avg: 52.1  |  Jump: +42.6 (+81.8%)

Banks' 82% GDS jump is backed by a clear role change. He started 2025 on the wing (WL) for the first seven rounds, averaging 69.1 GDS. From Round 10 onwards, Richmond moved him to centre half-back (CHB), and he stayed there for the rest of the season. As a named CHB, he averaged 106.0 GDS across his last 15 games.

The key defensive indicators all support it. His marks jumped from 3.0 per game on the wing to 5.7 per game at CHB. That intercept marking volume is the number one indicator for a defender sustaining premium scoring. His disposals rose from 17.9 to 22.8 and his TOG stabilised above 80%. This is structural.

For age curve context: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera averaged 118.5 GDS at age 21 and jumped to 135.4 at 22 to become the number one ranked defender. Lachie Ash went from 89.4 at 22 to 120.0 at 23. Banks' post-role-change rate of 106.0 at age 21 puts him on a similar trajectory to Ash's breakout.

The top-10 DEF threshold in 2025 was 109.8. Banks' CHB average of 106.0 is 3.8 points off.

The call: Strong evidence. The role change is confirmed, the intercept marking numbers are there, and the age curve is right. Banks is a realistic top-10 DEF candidate in 2026. Get his card before the season confirms it.

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions, DEF)

GDS Upside Rating: 8.5/10

Age in 2026: 22  |  2025 GDS Avg: 98.4  |  2024 GDS Avg: 69.1  |  Jump: +29.3 (+42.4%)

Fletcher's breakout was not driven by a single role change. He played multiple defensive positions across 2025, rotating between wing, half-back flank, back pocket, and interchange. What changed was the trust. His TOG rose from 79.8% in the first half to 84.4% in the second half, and his scoring climbed with it: 94.5 GDS first half, 102.6 second half, 107.8 in his last five rounds.

The marking numbers are what make him special as a defender. He averaged 6.7 marks per game across the full season. That is elite intercept volume, and in Brisbane's defensive structure where the ball regularly comes back through the back line, the opportunity is baked into the system.

For comparison: Lachie Ash averaged 89.4 GDS at age 22 before jumping to 120.0 at 23 to crack the top-6 DEF. Fletcher averaged 98.4 at age 21. His starting point is higher than Ash's was at the same stage.

The top-10 DEF threshold is 109.8. Fletcher's last five rounds averaged 107.8.

The call: Moderate to strong evidence. There is no single role change to point to, which makes the projection less clean than Banks. But the marking volume, rising TOG, and Brisbane's system all support continued growth. He is right on the edge of the top-10 DEF. A buy with confidence.

Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast Suns, FWD)

GDS Upside Rating: 8.5/10

Age in 2026: 21  |  2025 GDS Avg: 79.9  |  2024 GDS Avg: 52.9  |  Jump: +27.0 (+51.0%)

Humphrey is classified as a GDS Forward, but the data shows Gold Coast used him across multiple roles in 2025: rover (RR), half-forward flank (HFFR), full forward (FF), and even centre (C). His scoring fluctuated depending on where he played and how many CBAs he received. When he was named rover or centre and received 10+ CBAs, he averaged 95.7 GDS. When he was named in the forward line with fewer than 5 CBAs, he averaged 61.3 GDS.

That gap is the entire story. He averaged 1.05 goals and 4.2 tackles per game across the season, the dual-threat output that drives forward scoring. But it is his CBA allocation that determines whether he scores like a mid or like a forward. His season average of 11.0 CBAs per game suggests Gold Coast see him as a forward-mid hybrid, but the role was inconsistent.

The top-10 FWD threshold is 98.8 GDS. At 79.9, he sits 18.9 points off. But the forward line is the shallowest position pool in GDS, and a FWD receiving mid-like CBAs is the most valuable positional play in the game.

For comparison: Harry Sheezel (FWD, top-1) averaged 130.5 GDS at age 19 and 126.0 at age 20. Humphrey is not on that trajectory. But Sheezel receives heavy mid time. The question is whether Humphrey's CBA share stabilises or grows.

The call: Moderate evidence. The talent and scoring profile are clear, but his role was inconsistent in 2025. If Gold Coast commit to giving him 15+ CBAs per game in 2026, he cracks the top-10 FWD. If the role stays inconsistent, he sits in the 80 to 90 range. Buy the card on the upside, but know the risk is role-dependent.

Ryan Maric (West Coast Eagles, DEF)

GDS Upside Rating: 8.0/10

Age in 2026: 21  |  2025 GDS Avg: 90.4  |  2024 GDS Avg: 48.0  |  Jump: +42.4 (+88.3%)

Maric's 88% jump came from going from a part-time player in 2024 (19 games, 64.9% TOG) to a full-time defender in 2025 (22 games, 78.8% TOG). Unlike Banks, there was no clear mid-season role change. He bounced between back pocket (BPR/BPL), half-back flank (HBFR/HBFL), and wing (WR/WL) across the entire season. His first half (92.1 GDS) was slightly stronger than his second (88.3).

The consistency across the full season despite not having a locked-in position is actually a positive signal. His marks averaged 3.8 per game and his disposals sat at 20.9, showing he found the ball regardless of where he was named. At 21, the age curve has plenty of runway.

The top-10 DEF threshold is 109.8. Maric sits 19.4 points off on his full-season average.

The call: Moderate evidence. The jump is real and sustained, but without a clear positional lock or a second-half acceleration, the path to top-10 DEF in 2026 is longer than Banks or Fletcher. He is more of a 2027 candidate. Buy the card if you are building a defensive core for the next two to three seasons. The age and the Eagles' rebuild both work in his favour.

Ned Long (Collingwood Magpies, MID)

GDS Upside Rating: 7.5/10

Age in 2026: 23  |  2025 GDS Avg: 86.8  |  2024 GDS Avg: 51.9  |  Jump: +34.9 (+67.2%)

Long's breakout was driven by tackles and CBAs. He averaged 6.9 tackles and 16.4 CBAs per game in 2025. Those are the two most important indicators for midfield scoring in GDS, and both numbers say he was given a genuine inside mid role at Collingwood.

The concern is the trajectory. His first half averaged 89.9 GDS, his second half 83.4. That is a downward split. Investigating why: his TOG actually rose from 66.3% to 74.8% in the second half, and his CBAs held steady (16.1 vs 16.8). The dip was not role-driven. Collingwood's season collapsed in the second half, and team-level dysfunction tends to drag individual scores down. The underlying role indicators held.

The top-10 MID threshold is 118.7. Long sits 31.9 points off. That is a significant gap.

The call: The data is mixed. The role indicators (CBAs, tackles) are strong, but the scoring trajectory went backwards and the gap to the top-10 MID is the largest on this list. If Collingwood improves as a team and Long retains his CBA share, a push toward 95 to 100 GDS is possible. But cracking the top-10 MID is unlikely without a significant jump in disposal volume. This is a speculative buy for coaches who believe in Collingwood's 2026 improvement.

The Breakout Profile: What the Data Says

Across these seven players, the data reveals consistent patterns.

Role changes are the strongest breakout driver. Banks moved from wing to CHB and his GDS jumped 37 points. Curtin moved from interchange to a named wing position and gained 43 points on his average. When a coaching staff structurally changes a player's role, the scoring follows. Hot streaks fade. Role changes stick.

TOG growth is the prerequisite. Every player on this list saw a meaningful increase in time on ground. Curtin went from 52% to 84%. Banks from 62% to 81%. Maric from 65% to 79%. You cannot score GDS points from the bench. When TOG stabilises above 80%, a player has the baseline to produce at scale.

Age 20 to 23 is the breakout window. Every player on this list falls within that range. The data from established premiums confirms it: Rowell jumped from 108.8 to 118.7 between ages 22 and 23. Wanganeen-Milera from 118.5 to 135.4 between 21 and 22. Holmes from 111.4 to 119.9 at the same ages. The players on this list are entering that window with strong underlying indicators.

The Bottom Line

• Callaghan is the closest to cracking the top-10 MID right now. Strong evidence. Buy with confidence.

• Banks had a confirmed role change to CHB and his post-change numbers are within touching distance of the top-10 DEF. Strong evidence. Buy before the season starts.

• Fletcher is right on the edge of the top-10 DEF with elite intercept marking numbers. Moderate to strong evidence. Buy with confidence.

• Humphrey has the talent to crack the top-10 FWD, but his role needs to stabilise. Moderate evidence. Buy on the upside, but the risk is role-dependent.

• Curtin is a buy-and-hold play. The role change is confirmed and his post-change average is already 97.2. Top-10 MID is a 2027 target, but the card gets harder to get if you wait.

• Maric is a longer play without a locked-in position, but the consistency and age curve support continued growth. Buy if you are building for 2027.

• Long has the CBA share and tackle floor, but the gap to the top-10 MID is large and the trajectory dipped. Speculative buy.

  
  

  The numbers are there. The role changes are confirmed. Buy and trade for their cards now, before 2026 proves us right.