Aussie Rules Round 3 Fixture Preview

Three rounds in and the 2026 season is already delivering chaos. The injury list is stacking up across the competition, several contenders are licking their wounds, and the early-season data is still settling in ways nobody expected.

Round 3 gives us seven fixtures spread across four days, and there are genuine matchup edges to exploit in almost every game. A couple of clubs are absolutely decimated by injuries, which creates both risk and opportunity depending on which side of the ledger you are looking at.

Adelaide head to Geelong without their captain Jordan Dawson (calf), triple club champion Rory Laird (calf), and experienced forward Taylor Walker (managed). That is 732 games of combined experience missing from a side that already went down to the Western Bulldogs last week. Richmond are in an even worse spot, travelling to Perth without Tom Lynch (hamstring, four to five weeks) and Toby Nankervis (hamstring, six to eight weeks) after being belted by Gold Coast in Round 2.

Port Adelaide copped the biggest blow of the early season when captain Connor Rozee, who  suffered a high-grade hamstring tendon rupture last weekend. He is targeting a second-half return but will miss at least eight to twelve weeks. That is a massive hit to any GDS side that had him locked in as a top-tier defensive option.

On the flip side, Collingwood could welcome back Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe from calf injuries, GWS are expecting Aaron Cadman, Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford to return, and Carlton should have Adam Saad available after his hamstring setback. Those returning players shift the projection landscape meaningfully.

Key Injuries and Availability

Player	Team	GDS Pos	Injury	Status	Expected Return
Connor Rozee	Port Adelaide	DEF	Hamstring tendon	Out	R10-14
Jordan Dawson	Adelaide	MID	Calf	Out	R4-5
Patrick Dangerfield	Geelong	FWD	Calf (recurring)	Out	R4-5
Will Day	Hawthorn	MID	Shoulder	Out	R8-10
Hayden Young	Fremantle	MID	Hamstring	Out	R5-6
Toby Nankervis	Richmond	RUK	Hamstring	Out	R9-10
Tom Lynch	Richmond	FWD	Hamstring	Out	R7-8
Rory Laird	Adelaide	DEF	Calf	Out	R4-5
Christian Petracca	Gold Coast	FWD	Hamstring	Out	R7
Tom Green	GWS	MID	Knee	Out	Season
Adam Cerra	Carlton	MID	Hamstring	Test	R3
Isaac Heeney	Sydney	MID	Hamstring	Test	R4
Brennan Cox	Fremantle	DEF	Calf	Test	R3
Darcy Moore	Collingwood	DEF	Calf	Test	R3-4

Geelong Cats vs Adelaide Crows

Thursday, March 26 | GMHBA Stadium | 7:30pm AEDT

Adelaide have not won at GMHBA Stadium since 2003. That is a 23-year hoodoo at a ground where Geelong are historically dominant, and the Crows are arriving in significantly worse shape than the Cats. The loss of Dawson, Laird and Walker represents a combined 732 games of experience, and that kind of void does not get plugged by youngsters making their debut on a Thursday night in Geelong.

Geelong are without Patrick Dangerfield (calf, recurring) but still have enormous midfield depth through Max Holmes, Bailey Smith and potentially James Worpel if he passes a finger fitness test. Holmes is projecting roughly 10 to 15 per cent above his Round 1 to 2 baseline in this matchup, largely because Adelaide conceded the third-highest midfield scores in the competition through the first two rounds.

For Adelaide, Izak Rankine is the standout forward option. Without Dawson driving the ball forward from the middle, Rankine may need to do more work up the ground, which could either inflate or deflate his output depending on how the Crows structure around the absences, and where Geelong unleash their taggers.

Targets: Max Holmes (MID), Bailey Smith (MID), Gryan Miers (FWD), Izak Rankine (FWD)

Avoid: Jordan Dawson (MID, out), Rory Laird (DEF, out), Patrick Dangerfield (FWD, out)

Collingwood vs GWS Giants

Friday, March 27 | Marvel Stadium | 7:40pm AEDT

The Giants are in genuine crisis. Tom Green is done for the season with a knee injury, Josh Kelly’s hip has him sidelined indefinitely, and Sam Taylor (hamstring) is out for four to six weeks. That is three premium players gone from a side that has been scratching together results through sheer effort. The return of Cadman, Daniels and Bedford helps, but this is a drastically weakened outfit.

Collingwood, by contrast, could welcome back Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe to strengthen their defensive unit. Nick Daicos is the centrepiece of everything the Magpies do through the midfield, and he is projecting in the upper range of his scoring band against a GWS midfield that has been leaking points without Green and Kelly. His GDS output should sit comfortably around 15 to 20 per cent above his season baseline.

Josh Daicos operates in defence for GameDay Squad and his intercept game thrives when the opposition is kicking inside 50 frequently. GWS have been doing exactly that, especially under pressure, so the elder Daicos brother shapes as a strong play.

For GWS, Toby Greene remains the most reliable forward option. He is a genuine fantasy star when he is on, and despite the injuries around him, Greene tends to find the ball regardless. Lachie Whitfield and Lachie Ash both line up in defence for GDS and have been solid performers, though the structural damage has me questioning how long they will continue putting out ceiling scores.

Targets: Nick Daicos (MID), Josh Daicos (DEF), Darcy Cameron (RUK), Toby Greene (FWD)

Avoid: Tom Green (MID, season), Josh Kelly (MID, out), Sam Taylor (DEF, out)

St Kilda vs Brisbane Lions

Saturday, March 28 | Marvel Stadium | 12:35pm AEDT

St Kilda had a gritty four-point win over GWS in Round 2, but they are dealing with a mounting injury crisis of their own. Max King (knee, indefinite), Jack Macrae (knee, two weeks), Ryan Byrnes (foot, four to six weeks) and Anthony Caminiti (hamstring) are all sidelined. The midfield depth is being tested severely.

Brisbane come into this fresh off a Round 2 bye, with Hawthorn’s dismantling of Sydney offering a reminder that the Swans’ Round 1 form is not bulletproof and we shouldn’t look into that result too much. Josh Dunkley is one of the premier midfielders in the competition and his projection for this matchup sits around 10 to 15 per cent above his early-season average. The Saints have been leaking midfield points, and Dunkley thrives in contested situations.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Jack Sinclair both have been two of the more consistent scoring defenders in the past, but Sinclair is standing out as the preferred option. Wanganeen-Milera may benefits from St Kilda’s defensive game style, racking up intercepts and rebound possessions. Against a Brisbane side that moves the ball quickly, both could be in for big days.

Rowan Marshall is one to be very cautious about. The arrival of Tom De Koning at St Kilda means Marshall no longer has a full-time ruck role, and his scoring ceiling is significantly capped as a result. Projections based on last season’s averages will overstate his value because they do not account for the reduced ruck time. Avoid him in GDS until the role picture becomes clearer.

Dayne Zorko continues to be a reliable scorer for Brisbane. This week should be no different. Charlie Cameron remains the top forward option for the Lions and is projecting around 8 to 12 per cent above his baseline in what should be a free-flowing game.

Targets: Josh Dunkley (MID), Jack Sinclair (DEF), Charlie Cameron (FWD), Dayne Zorko (DEF)

Avoid: Rowan Marshall (RUK, ruck split with De Koning), Max King (FWD, out), Jack Macrae (MID, out)

Fremantle vs Richmond

Saturday, March 28 | Optus Stadium | 4:15pm AEDT (2:15pm AWST)

Weather Alert

Perth is forecast for a wet afternoon with a 90 per cent chance of rain. Temperatures around 23 degrees with winds between 11 and 31 kilometres per hour. Optus Stadium is an open-air venue and these conditions will materially impact scoring. Expect lower disposal counts, more contested ball, and a bias toward inside midfielders and marking forwards who can capitalise on wet-weather errors. Adjust projections downward by roughly 5 to 10 per cent for outside runners and rebounding defenders.

Richmond are in freefall. The 68-point loss to Gold Coast in Round 2 was ugly, and now they lose Nankervis (hamstring, six to eight weeks) and Lynch (hamstring, four to five weeks). With key forwards and their number one ruckman gone, the Tigers are going to struggle to score and struggle to compete in the ruck. Fremantle should dominate this game.

Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong are the two premium midfielders to target here. Both are operating through the midfield for GameDay Squad, and Richmond conceded the highest midfield scores in the competition last round. Even with rain-adjusted projections, both are sitting comfortably 15 to 20 per cent above their early-season baselines for this game. Luke Jackson should feast against whoever Richmond put up without Nankervis.

Shai Bolton could be a sneaky play in the wet. He tends to work harder in contested situations and his goal sense makes him a threat even when conditions deteriorate.

For Richmond, Tim Taranto is the only midfielder worth considering, and even then, the team context is so poor that projections should be treated with serious scepticism. The inflated numbers you might see for Taranto are largely regression to a season-long baseline rather than genuine form improvement, given Richmond conceded 128 points to Gold Coast last round.

Targets: Andrew Brayshaw (MID), Caleb Serong (MID), Luke Jackson (RUK), Shai Bolton (FWD)

Avoid: Toby Nankervis (RUK, out), Tom Lynch (FWD, out), Hayden Young (MID, out)

Essendon vs North Melbourne

Saturday, March 28 | Marvel Stadium | 7:35pm AEDT

Two clubs trending in very different directions.

The Bombers are dealing with a lengthy injury list. Mason Redman (meniscus, surgery), Nic Martin (ACL, season), Lewis Hayes (knee), and Angus Clarke (syndesmosis) are all out. That defensive unit is threadbare, which opens up scoring opportunities for North’s forwards.

Zach Merrett operating through the midfield remains the Bombers’ heartbeat. His projections are sitting around 10 to 12 per cent above his baseline, but context is important here. Those inflated numbers partly reflect regression to his career average after a below-par Round 2, not necessarily a genuine form spike. He is still a must-start given his talent, but temper expectations slightly.

Harry Sheezel is obviously one of the most exciting young players in the competition and he is projecting strongly against an Essendon side that has been vulnerable across all lines. Tristan Xerri takes the ruck duties for North and should have a solid day against a Bombers ruck stocks that are thin at the best of times.

Targets: Zach Merrett (MID), Harry Sheezel (FWD), Tristan Xerri (RUK), Colby McKercher (DEF)

Avoid: Mason Redman (DEF, out), Essendon defenders generally (structural issues)

Port Adelaide vs West Coast Eagles

Sunday, March 29 | Adelaide Oval | 12:30pm AEDT (12:00pm ACDT)

Port Adelaide smashed Essendon by 63 points in Round 2 despite already missing several key players. The big news is that Connor Rozee is gone for an extended period with a high-grade hamstring tendon rupture. Surgery was required and he is targeting a second-half-of-season return. That is a significant loss for GDS owners who had him as a premium defender. Avoid completely.

Even without Rozee, Port have scoring depth. Zak Butters is the standout midfield option and is projecting 12 to 18 per cent above his early-season baseline. West Coast conceded the fourth-highest midfield scores through the first two rounds, so Butters should have a field day. Port also have the advantage of playing at Adelaide Oval where they are historically strong.

Miles Bergman is dealing with a minor ankle issue and is expected to miss this game. The Power’s injury list is genuinely frightening. Rozee, Ivan Soldo (knee, season), Sam Powell-Pepper (knee, eight to ten weeks), Josh Sinn (shoulder, effectively season), and Mani Liddy (groin) are all out. Despite this, they still thrashed Essendon, which tells you something about their depth. (And Essendon)

Targets: Zak Butters (MID), Tim Kelly (FWD)

Avoid: Connor Rozee (DEF, out long-term), West Coast defenders (structural issues), Ivan Soldo (FWD, season)

Carlton vs Melbourne

Sunday, March 29 | MCG | 3:15pm AEDT

The marquee game of the round. Carlton got their first win of the season against Richmond in Round 2 and will be looking to build momentum. Melbourne were humbled by Fremantle, losing by 48 points, and desperately need a response.

Sam Walsh has been outstanding through the first two rounds. He polled maximum coaches’ votes in opening round and followed up with 30 disposals against Richmond in Round 1. His early-season form suggests his projections for this game are genuinely form-driven rather than baseline regression. Expect him to sit 12 to 18 per cent above his 2 game average, which already represents a strong start. Walsh operates through the midfield and is building a case as one of the competition’s most consistent performers. He recently signed an eight-year extension at Carlton through to 2034, and his commitment is translating directly to on-field output.

For Melbourne, Max Gawn is the standout ruck option. He operates as one of the premier ruckmen in the competition regardless of team context, and his scoring is largely matchup-proof. Kysaiah Pickett is capable of explosive scoring in big games at the MCG. Jack Steele has been finding form through the midfield and offers a solid floor even in a side under pressure.

Melbourne are missing Daniel Turner (hand, two to three weeks), Jake Bowey (foot, six to eight weeks), Jack Viney (achilles), and Shane McAdam (achilles). That is a lot of quality out of the side, which could suppress scoring across the board for the Demons.

Targets: Sam Walsh (MID), Jack Steele (MID), Max Gawn (RUK), Kysaiah Pickett (FWD)

Avoid: Jack Viney (MID, out), Jake Bowey (DEF, out), Daniel Turner (DEF, out)

Top Picks by Position

The strongest projection-backed options across the round, organised by GameDay Squad position. Must-start candidates are players whose matchup, form and projection data all align.

Defenders

Player	Team	Opponent	Why
Josh Daicos	Collingwood	vs GWS	Intercept game thrives against struggling sides. GWS kicking inside 50 frequently.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	St Kilda	vs Brisbane	Consistent performer. Rebound game suits this matchup. Hopefully can avoid the tag.
Jack Sinclair	St Kilda	vs Brisbane	Volume ball-winner across half-back. Projects 8-12% above baseline.
Lachie Ash	GWS	vs Collingwood	The in form defender in the comp. The question will be how long he keeps it up.
Dayne Zorko	Brisbane	vs St Kilda	Veteran half-back averaging strongly through two rounds.

Midfielders

Player	Team	Opponent	Why
Andrew Brayshaw	Fremantle	vs Richmond	Richmond conceding highest mid scores. Projects 15-20% above baseline.
Caleb Serong	Fremantle	vs Richmond	Same matchup edge as Brayshaw. Premium mid in a dominant side.
Nick Daicos	Collingwood	vs GWS	GWS midfield decimated. Projects in upper range of scoring band.
Sam Walsh	Carlton	vs Melbourne	Outstanding early form. 30 disposals R2. Genuine form spike, not regression.
Zak Butters	Port Adelaide	vs West Coast	West Coast leaking mid scores. Projects 12-18% above baseline.

Ruckmen

Player	Team	Opponent	Why
Luke Jackson	Fremantle	vs Richmond	No Nankervis for Richmond. Dominant matchup.
Darcy Cameron	Collingwood	vs GWS	Kieren Briggs is a step below. Cameron should dominate ruck contests.
Max Gawn	Melbourne	vs Carlton	Matchup-proof premium. Consistent scorer regardless of team form.

Forwards

Player	Team	Opponent	Why
Gryan Miers	Geelong	vs Adelaide	Depleted Adelaide defence. Projects strongly in GDS forward role.
Harry Sheezel	North Melbourne	vs Essendon	Essendon leaking points across all lines. Exciting young talent.
Toby Greene	GWS	vs Collingwood	Finds the ball regardless of team struggles. Reliable scorer.
Charlie Cameron	Brisbane	vs St Kilda	Projecting 8-12% above baseline. St Kilda conceding forward scores.
Kysaiah Pickett	Melbourne	vs Carlton	Explosive in big MCG games. High ceiling forward option.

thestatslab.app

Stats Lab data | Fantasy-relevant injuries tracked by The Stats