Aussie Rules Round 4 Fixture Preview

The injury ward is doing its best to derail early-season squads. Defenders are dropping with calf strains, ruck stocks are thinning fast, and a couple of the competition’s most reliable midfielders are watching from the stands. But stripped-back rosters almost always mean opportunity, and our data is pointing clearly at where the scoring is going to open up this week.

GWS and St Kilda are both on the bye, so check your squads accordingly before locking anything in. Let’s get into it.

Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood

Gabba | Thursday 2 April

The Gabba opener is top shelf viewing for fantasy coaches, and not just because it kicks off the round. Brisbane’s defensive stocks are still dented with Harris Andrews suspended until Round 5, leaving a genuine hole in their backline that Collingwood’s forwards will be keen to exploit. The Lions will need their midfield engine to cover the ground to get on top.

Top Scorers – Last Meeting (Round 21 2025)

Player	Team	GDS Score	Position
Hugh McCluggage	Brisbane	141	MID
Josh Daicos	Collingwood	134	DEF
Josh Dunkley	Brisbane	131	MID
Lachie Neale	Brisbane	128	MID
Will Ashcroft	Brisbane	125	MID

Positive Outliers: Nick Daicos has been the best player in the competition through his three games, averaging close to 160. The matchup adjustment is essentially neutral here, but he does not need a boost, he is just dominant. His projection sits in the 125–135 range, with a ceiling well above that. If you do not own him, you should probably jump on the transfer market now. Josh Dunkley is also worth watching. He has been tracking below what we expect at just over 100 for the season, but projections have him in the 103–123 range conservatively, and the Gabba surface suits his contested ball work.

Negative Outliers: The concern around Brisbane’s midfield output this week is Hugh McCluggage’s fitness. He has been listed as a test after a calf complaint, and his return is not locked in. If he is named, he is genuinely good value given how he performed last time these sides met, but holding off until the team sheet drops is the sensible play. Do not bank on his inclusion.

Reliable Premiums: Will Ashcroft has been one of the quieter success stories of the opening month, averaging close to 114. He projects in the 94–114 range this week and provides floor security regardless of how the game flows. Maybe not enough for your standard squads but one of the first to lock into U22s. Dayne Zorko has been genuinely outstanding through three rounds at an average of nearly 144, projecting in the 116–136 range, and remains the best DEF value on the transfer market due to his age.

North Melbourne vs Carlton

Marvel Stadium | Friday 3 April

North Melbourne hosting Carlton at Marvel on a Friday night is the perfect setup for high-disposal midfielders. The Roos have a notable ruck issue this week with Tristan Xerri suspended, meaning Callum Coleman-Jones will likely take on primary duties. Watch that ruck contest, because it could have a meaningful flow-on to the midfield output for both sides.

Top Scorers – Last Meeting (Round 6 2025)

Player	Team	GDS Score	Position
George Hewett	Carlton	143	MID
Adam Cerra	Carlton	128	MID
Colby McKercher	North Melbourne	125	DEF
Tristan Xerri	North Melbourne	122	RUK
Charlie Curnow	Carlton	109	FWD

Positive Outliers: Harry Sheezel is in the form of his life, averaging close to 149 GDS points, and his projection this week sits in the 121–140 range against a Carlton side that has conceded freely to opposition stars. He is one of the few genuine locks in the competition right now with little competition for selection. Sam Walsh has been steady at 117 for the season and projects in the 114–125 range, with a slight matchup boost. This is a game that suits his style.

Negative Outliers: Without Xerri, North Melbourne’s ruck numbers will almost certainly dip. Coleman-Jones has not shown the same scoring reliability, so lean away from NM ruck options this week in the primetime comp. Adam Cerra is listed as a test after a hamstring issue, so his availability needs monitoring before selection. Things are looking good though.

Reliable Premiums: Patrick Cripps has been a touch below his usual scoring standard

through three rounds at an average of nearly 94, but projects in the 98–118 range in a game that typically produces his best work. This is the type of matchup that sees he put in a ceiling score. Colby McKercher looks to be back as an option as a slow start. Assuming the role is there, the floor will be one of the best.

Adelaide vs Fremantle

Adelaide Oval | Friday 3 April

Adelaide Oval on a Friday night has a good history for fantasy scoring, and this matchup has produced some impressive Fremantle midfield numbers historically. The home side heads into this one with some genuine uncertainty in their setup, but there is reason for cautious optimism on the team sheet front.

Top Scorers – Last Meeting (Round 7 2025)

Player	Team	GDS Score	Position
Andrew Brayshaw	Fremantle	146	MID
Jordan Dawson	Adelaide	121	MID
Jordan Clark	Fremantle	118	DEF
Rory Laird	Adelaide	117	DEF
Luke Ryan	Fremantle	115	DEF

Positive Outliers: Jordan Dawson is expected to be a test this week after his calf complaint, and early signs point toward a return. He averaged 126.5 from two games before going down and projects in the 117–137 range if named, making him an immediate consideration. Keep a close eye on the team sheet Thursday night. Do not lock him in without confirmation, but if he plays, both his scoring history against the Dockers and his projection support his inclusion. Andrew Brayshaw has been the standout Fremantle scoring option all season and projects in the 108–128 range this week, a tighter band than recent weeks that reflects genuine scoring confidence in this matchup.

Negative Outliers: Rory Laird is still listed as out with a calf complaint and his Round 4–5 return window makes him unlikely to feature here. His absence removes one of Adelaide’s most reliable scoring options from the mix. Caleb Serong projects in the 104–124 range but carries a slight negative matchup adjustment at Adelaide Oval, so temper expectations on his ceiling this week.

Reliable Premiums: Jordan Clark and Luke Ryan have both been consistent all year when named with Clark at 103 and Ryan at 101 for the season. Both project with reasonable floors in this matchup.

Richmond vs Port Adelaide

MCG | Saturday 4 April

This is the matchup where the injury news really bites, and it bites Richmond. Toby Nankervis is out until Round 9–10, Tom Lynch is still sidelined with a hamstring injury until Round 7–8, and Nathan Broad will miss this week as well. Three significant pieces out of the Tigers’ structure. Port Adelaide’s defenders absolutely gorged themselves the last time these sides met, and the data suggests another generous scoring environment for the Power’s backmen.

Top Scorers – Last Meeting (Round 2 2025)

Player	Team	GDS Score	Position
Connor Rozee	Port Adelaide	175	DEF
Jase Burgoyne	Port Adelaide	144	DEF
Kane Farrell	Port Adelaide	132	DEF
Logan Evans	Port Adelaide	131	DEF
Mitch Georgiades	Port Adelaide	120	FWD

Positive Outliers: Zak Butters is the play of the round. He projects in the 114–134 range with a strong positive matchup adjustment, and his season average sits at nearly 127. Against a depleted Richmond side, the scoring corridor through Port’s midfield is wide open. Butters is the clearest case for maximum exposure in any given round this season so far. Kane Farrell and Jase Burgoyne are both projecting in the high 90s–100s this week with positive matchup adjustments across the board, continuing the trend from last year where Port’s DEF was the gift that kept on giving against Richmond.

Negative Outliers: Tim Taranto has been reliable at 115 for the season and projects in the 106–126 range, but with a slight negative matchup adjustment he is the type of play to downgrade slightly given the team’s structural disruption. Jayden Short projects in the 103–123 range, also carrying a negative matchup read against Port’s defensive pressure.

Reliable Premiums: Nobody that hasn’t been named stands out in this one.

West Coast vs Sydney

Optus Stadium | Saturday 4 April

Sydney are traveling to Perth in what could be a tricky game to read from a fantasy perspective. The Swans’ midfield is carrying significant injury uncertainty. Errol Gulden is a long-term absentee, and Isaac Heeney is listed as a test after his hamstring concern. If Heeney does not play, Sydney’s premium scoring options thin out considerably.

Top Scorers – Last Meeting (Round 24 2025)

Player	Team	GDS Score	Position
Errol Gulden	Sydney	160	MID
Tom Papley	Sydney	158	FWD
Callum Mills	Sydney	135	DEF
Jack Graham	West Coast	117	FWD
Nick Blakey	Sydney	115	DEF

Positive Outliers: If Isaac Heeney is named, he is an immediate consideration. His season average of 98 from two games understates his ceiling, and his updated projection sits in the 102–122 range with a positive matchup adjustment at Optus. He needs confirming before selection, but a named Heeney is worth targeting. Chad Warner has quietly been working his way up to a full scoring load and projects in the 99–119 range this week, benefiting from a positive matchup adjustment in Perth.

Negative Outliers: West Coast are a thin squad right now, with multiple key players on the injury list. Their reliable scorers are difficult to identify with confidence. Approach West Coast “premiums” with caution.

Reliable Premiums: Callum Mills projects in the 95–115 range, consistent with his 93 season average. Nick Blakey projects in the 84–104 range, both providing floor security for coaches who want coverage from this game. The Swans’ structure creates scoring opportunities for their defensive-half runners when they control the game, which they are expected to do here.

Melbourne vs Gold Coast

MCG | Sunday 5 April

Melbourne versus Gold Coast at the MCG is a match that has historically produced strong Gold Coast midfield scores, and this week’s version comes with an important caveat. Christian Petracca is out until Round 7, and Matt Rowell is a test after a finger issue. If Rowell misses again, Noah Anderson becomes even more central to everything the Suns do.

Top Scorers – Last Meeting (Round 3 2025)

Player	Team	GDS Score	Position
Matt Rowell	Gold Coast	147	MID
John Noble	Gold Coast	142	DEF
Touk Miller	Gold Coast	137	MID
Noah Anderson	Gold Coast	135	MID
Ed Langdon	Melbourne	121	FWD

Positive Outliers: Noah Anderson has been tracking at nearly 119 for the season and projects in the 109–129 range this week. If Rowell is unavailable, he will carry even more of the Suns’ midfield load and his ceiling lifts accordingly. John Noble has been rock solid at 106 for the season and continues to project as one of the most reliable DEF options across the round.

Negative Outliers: Max Gawn carries a meaningful negative matchup adjustment this week, projecting in the 106–126 range despite averaging over 140 for the season. The downward pressure is notable and worth factoring in before locking him. Without this negative match up he comfortably sits as our number 1 ruck option so leave out at your own risk. Matt Rowell is a test, which means his output is genuinely uncertain. If he plays fully he is a premium option; if he is managed or misses, that scoring goes elsewhere. Personally, I would watch him for a week regardless of the positive match up.

Reliable Premiums: Jack Steele has been one of the best picks of the season, averaging 136 points in a return to what he once was. He projects in the 113–133 range and Melbourne’s MCG home games have been productive environments for their midfielders. Kysaiah Pickett continues to deliver at 119 for the season but only projects in the 80–100 range. Ceiling scores are available though if the Demons’ inside-50 game clicks.

Western Bulldogs vs Essendon

Marvel Stadium | Sunday 5 April

This is the fixture of the round from a fantasy perspective. Full stop. The last two times these teams have met, the Bulldogs have produced a scoring explosion through every line of the ground. Tom Liberatore is out until Round 5, which is worth noting, but the depth behind him is genuinely impressive.

Top Scorers – Last Meeting (Round 10 2025)

Player	Team	GDS Score	Position
Bailey Dale	Western Bulldogs	191	DEF
Rhylee West	Western Bulldogs	131	FWD
Tom Liberatore	Western Bulldogs	130	MID
Matthew Kennedy	Western Bulldogs	129	MID
Ed Richards	Western Bulldogs	123	MID

Positive Outliers: Marcus Bontempelli is the highest-projected player in Round 4, sitting in the 125–145 range with one of the strongest positive matchup adjustments of the week. He is averaging 132 for the season and his ceiling against Essendon at Marvel is significant. Matthew Kennedy projects in the 105–125 range and Ed Richards in the 103–123 range, both with the same positive matchup adjustment. This is not just a Bontempelli game, it is a full-Bulldogs-midfield game. Tim English projects as the ruckman of the round, sitting in the 117–137 range with a solid positive adjustment and a season average of 120. Against a depleted Essendon ruck line missing Nick Bryan and Vigo Visentini, his output could be substantial.

Negative Outliers: Zach Merrett carries a meaningful negative matchup adjustment, projecting in the 109–129 range from a season average of nearly 111. The Bulldogs’ defensive structure has been suffocating for opposition mids in recent matchups, and Merrett is the name to be cautious about from the Bombers’ side. Darcy Parish projects in the 98–111 range with a similar negative adjustment.

Reliable Premiums: Bailey Dale has come back from a slow start to the season and projects in the 102–117 range with a strong positive matchup adjustment. His season average of 82 is suppressed by an early-season blip, and his ceiling in this matchup environment is significantly higher. 191 last time they met should speak for itself.

Hawthorn vs Geelong

MCG | Monday 6 April

The Monday MCG blockbuster caps the round, and this is a genuinely fascinating one for fantasy purposes.

Top Scorers – Last Meeting (Round 6 2025)

Player	Team	GDS Score	Position
Karl Amon	Hawthorn	131	DEF
Jai Newcombe	Hawthorn	126	MID
Lloyd Meek	Hawthorn	123	RUK
James Worpel	Hawthorn	116	MID
Jack Gunston	Hawthorn	114	FWD

Positive Outliers: Lloyd Meek carries the maximum positive matchup adjustment of the round and projects in the 92–109 range. His season average of 82 understates what he is capable of in a favourable matchup, and with Hawthorn at the MCG, this is exactly the type of game where he delivers. Bailey Smith has been one of the best midfielders in the competition through three rounds, averaging 145. His numbers speak for themselves, and he projects in the 114–134 range this week against a Hawthorn midfield that has conceded freely to big scorers.

Negative Outliers: Gryan Miers projects in the 87–107 range and, without Dangerfield on the ground, Geelong’s forward structure changes enough to create uncertainty around his exact scoring role. Unlikely to be too significant considering last weeks output. Likely just a case of the projection model catching up to 2026. Dylan Moore projects in the 90–110 range for Hawthorn with a slight negative matchup adjustment. Based on the available forwards though, this tight projection could be a score you are happy with.

Reliable Premiums: James Sicily has been one of the most consistent DEF options of the opening month at 117 for the season, projecting in the 103–123 range with a positive adjustment. He is as safe a floor option as exists in this round. Jai Newcombe has been reliable at 110 for the season and projects in the 95–114 range. Hawthorn have been competitive and Newcombe benefits from game time security regardless of result.

Top Picks by Position

Position	Player	Team	Why
DEF	Bailey Dale	Western Bulldogs	Premium matchup vs Essendon, 102–117
DEF	James Sicily	Hawthorn	Reliable 103–123, season avg 117
DEF	John Noble	Gold Coast	Consistent 106 avg, projects 92–112
MID	Marcus Bontempelli	Western Bulldogs	Highest projection in round, 125–145
MID	Nick Daicos	Collingwood	Season avg near 160, 125–135 projection
MID	Noah Anderson	Gold Coast	109–129, better if Rowell misses
RUC	Tim English	Western Bulldogs	117–137, max upside vs depleted ruck
RUC	Lloyd Meek	Hawthorn	Max positive matchup adj, 92–109
FWD	Harry Sheezel	North Melbourne	Season avg 149, 121–140, lock of round
FWD	Gryan Miers	Geelong	128 avg. Down projection but it’s likely still catching up.

thestatslab.app

Stats Lab data | Fantasy-relevant injuries tracked by The Stats