Will We Ever See the Fantasy Dominant Mills Again?

The Pedigree Is Not in Question

Callum Mills has a fantasy ceiling most GDS defenders could never dream of. In 2021 he walked into the centre square in Round 1 against Brisbane and dropped 29 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals, and three Brownlow votes. Over the next two seasons as a genuine on-ball midfielder, he averaged 25.9 disposals, 7 marks and 5.7 tackles per game. In 2022 alone he posted 8 scores above 120, carried a floor of 85, and earned an All-Australian blazer and the Bob Skilton Medal. Back-to-back 110-plus seasons. He was not just good. He was elite.

That is the player still sitting inside this card. The question is whether the role and the body will let us see him again.

Two Lost Years

A torn rotator cuff in 2023 wiped most of that season. A foot injury delayed his 2025 return until Round 11. Across 2024 and 2025, Mills managed just 19 games. His 2024 numbers (83.1 GDS from 7 games at 75.1% TOG) were ugly. A shell of the player we had seen 18 months earlier.

But 2025 told a different story. Once he got on the park, the numbers climbed quickly.

Stat	2024 (7 games)	2025 (12 games)
GDS Points	83.1	104.9
Disposals	17.4	23.8
Marks	5.4	6.6
Kicks	10.4	13.5
TOG	75.1%	82.3%
CBA%	10.6%	1.4%

He improved as the year went on, too. His last seven games averaged 107.4 GDS compared to 101.4 across his first five. TOG climbed from 80.8% to 83.4% and his marking lifted from 6.2 to 6.9 per game. That 104.9 season average included games where he was clearly still building fitness. The back end of the year looked like a different player to the one who returned in Round 11.

Flawless Preseason: The X-Factor

This is the part that changes the calculus. For the first time in three years, Mills has completed a full, uninterrupted preseason. He finished 2025 healthy, had the longest off-season break of his career, and has been one of the standouts on the training track.

Dean Cox said Mills is a "very dangerous half-back" and that "he's training really well. We hope for a bit of luck throughout the year that he can string a year together." Assistant coach Mark McVeigh was even more pointed after the intra-club: "Yeah, he stood out, didn't he? Having a really strong pre-season. He feels really good out there."

Mills himself acknowledged the difference a clean run makes: "Nice to finish off the year uninterrupted. Fingers crossed everything goes well in preseason. I'm feeling really fit."

We have not seen a fully fit, full-preseason Mills since 2022. That was the 110-plus version. The 2025 data came off the back of no preseason and a midseason return. A full preparation is the single biggest variable that could shift his output.

The Halfback Role Could Be Where He Flourishes

The CBA share dropping to 1.4% will scare some coaches. It should not. The halfback role Mills has been given is one of the most fantasy-friendly positions on the ground for a player with his skillset.

The data from 2025 shows exactly why. When he played the roaming halfback or back pocket, he had licence to push up the ground, intercept, take marks, and rack up kicks.

Named Position	Games	Avg GDS
Half-Back Flank (HBFL)	6	104.2
Wing (WR)	2	119.5
Back Pocket (BPL)	1	135.0
Full Back (FB)	1	78.0
Wing Left (WL)	1	75.0

The roaming halfback is not deep defence. It is an intercepting, rebounding role with marking opportunities and disposal volume. Look at who dominates the GDS defender rankings: Wanganeen-Milera, Whitfield, Zorko, Ash, Dale. They are all roaming halfbacks or interceptors. The role Mills has been handed is the exact mould that produces top-tier GDS defenders.

His marking numbers (6.6 per game) already sit above every player in the top 7 except Whitfield (7.2). He is getting the ball. The question is what he does with it.

Where He Sits Right Now

Here are the top 15 GDS defenders from 2025 (minimum 10 games). The line at DEF7 is your squad cutoff.

Rank	Player	Avg GDS	Avg Disp	Kick%
DEF1	Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	135.4	29.9	74.6%
DEF2	Lachie Whitfield	125.6	28.3	67.1%
DEF3	Connor Rozee	125.3	27.5	65.5%
DEF4	Dayne Zorko	124.4	25.8	80.6%
DEF5	Jack Sinclair	121.8	27.0	71.9%
DEF6	Lachie Ash	120.0	27.9	66.2%
DEF7	Bailey Dale	113.0	27.0	73.0%
DEF8	Josh Daicos	112.3	27.0	63.0%
DEF9	John Noble	110.5	25.7	69.0%
DEF10	Christian Salem	109.8	22.9	70.7%
...
DEF15	Callum Mills	104.9	23.8	56.8%

Mills sits 8.1 points below DEF7 (Bailey Dale, 113.0) and 4.9 points below the top 10 cutoff (Salem, 109.8). But remember, that 104.9 came off no preseason, a midseason return, and clear fitness building across the first month back. The back-end average of 107.4 is a more honest read of where he was trending.

What Needs to Happen to Crack the Top 7

The gap is real. But it is not impossible to close, especially with the three factors in his favour (elite history, full preseason, fantasy-friendly role). Here is what the numbers need to look like.

1. Kick ratio needs to climb. This is the biggest lever. Mills kicked at 56.8% in 2025. Every defender in the top 7 kicks at 63% or higher. Dale (DEF7) is at 73.0%. Mills has the leg for it. In his peak midfield years he was kicking at higher rates. A full preseason in the halfback role, with more confidence to back himself on the boot rather than handballing short, could push him toward 65%. That alone closes 3 to 4 GDS points.

2. Disposal volume needs to push toward 26 or 27. At 23.8, he is competitive but short of the DEF7 line at 27.0. Three extra touches per game, converted mostly as kicks, would close the majority of the gap. A player with his marking ability and positioning should find those touches with better fitness and a settled role.

3. TOG toward 85%+. He averaged 82.3% in 2025, up from 75.1% in 2024. The second-half average was 83.4%. A full preseason should push him comfortably past 85%, which gives him more time on the ground to accumulate.

If all three shift, you are looking at a player averaging 110 to 115 GDS. That puts him right at the DEF7 line and potentially inside the top 10 for card value. If only one or two shift, he lands in the DEF8 to DEF10 range. Still outside the weekly top 7, but closer.

Opening Round: Must Start

In the 2026 Opening Round (Round 0), only five games are scheduled. Sydney hosts Carlton at the SCG. Just 10 teams on the park. With GDS squads requiring seven defenders, coaches need to fill spots from a drastically reduced pool. Mills is a lock regardless of your long-term view.

The Verdict

The fantasy-dominant version of Mills, the on-ball midfielder who averaged 110-plus with 30%+ CBAs, is gone. But that does not mean the card is dead. The factors lined up in his favour are real: an elite scoring history that proves the ceiling exists, the first flawless preseason in three years, and a roaming halfback role that is exactly the mould that produces top-tier GDS defenders. His marking numbers are already elite. The half-back position gives him licence to intercept, rebound, and rack up kicks.

The gap to DEF7 is 8.1 points based on 2025 data. The bull case says a full preseason, better fitness, and a settled role close that gap to 2 or 3 points. The bear case says 104.9 is who he is now and 28-year-olds coming off two injury-wrecked seasons do not suddenly find another gear.

We rate Mills as a 25% player with upside to 50% if the preseason translates. Right now, across a 24-round season, he probably makes your starting seven around six times: Opening Round, bye rounds, injury cover. But if the kick ratio lifts and the disposal volume pushes toward 26 or 27, he could become a genuine rotation option in 12 or more rounds.

Hold the card. The name, the DEF tag, and the preseason buzz all say there is value here. Just do not confuse the 2022 version with the 2026 version until the data proves otherwise.