Aussie Rules Fantasy 2024 Centre-Bounce-Attendance Analysis - The importance of Centre Bounce Attendances (CBAs) has been hotly debated in the AFL fantasy community for a long time. Regardless of your stance, I think we can all agree that non midfield players who have a high percentage of CBAs generally end up as great scorers for our sides. I’ve crunched the numbers to find 5 players outside of the GameDay Squad Midfield who will likely see their percentages increase this season. Hopefully this can correlate with an increase in their scores to help you get ahead from the start.
Hayden Young
GDS Position: Defender
CBAs 2023: 16%
Expected CBAs 2024: 75%
Hayden Young is poised to enter his fifth season in the AFL, a milestone that might lead some to believe he's finished his development. However, that assumption would be misguided. With only 10 games played across his first two seasons, I consider this upcoming season as his true third year in the league. While many of us anticipated a more significant impact last season, Young's start was sluggish. Nevertheless, he finished strongly, delivering consistent performances. Over his last five games, he boasted an average of 74% centre bounce attendances and never scored below 99 GameDay Squad points during this period. It appears that Young's role within the team has undergone a transformation, and 2024 presents an opportunity to capitalize on his listing as a defender.
Jason Horne -Francis
GDS Position: Forward
CBAs 2023: 58%
Expected CBAs 2024: 68%
Jason Horne-Francis commenced his career as a "once-in-a-generation talent" and enjoyed a solid first season in a struggling North Melbourne side. His controversial trade request to Port Adelaide brought even more attention to the former number 1 draft pick, probably raising our expectations of him. It's easy to forget that the kid is only just entering his third AFL season, traditionally the period where we witness most breakout years in fantasy football. Horne-Francis currently commands a 58% share of centre bounce attendances, which is still a decent effort, but I anticipate him becoming a solid part of the Port Adelaide midfield alongside the likes of Rozee and Butters. Consequently, one should expect his fantasy output to increase accordingly.
Elijah Tsatas
GDS Position: Forward
CBAs 2023: 16%
Expected CBAs 2024: 45%
The highly anticipated first-round draft pick saw limited action last year, appearing in just four games due to a preseason meniscus tear. However, those four outings were promising, showcasing his considerable talent, highlighted by an impressive 102 GameDay Squad points in only his second game. Reports indicate that Tsatas has had an exceptional preseason, including participation in an intensive training camp in the US reserved for select senior players. This speaks volumes about the club's confidence in him and reflects his dedication. Despite only managing a 16% share of center bounce attendances, I believe that with Shiel's slow return, opportunities will abound for Tsatas this year, particularly early in the season.
Mitch Owens
GDS Position: Forward
CBAs 2023: 16%
Expected CBAs 2024: 36%
Mitchito Owens is undoubtedly a talented footballer destined for great things. He possesses explosive speed, a relentless work ethic, and has drawn comparisons to players like Jack Steele at a similar age. However, his versatility poses a double-edged sword in fantasy football. Given his ability to fill various roles on the field, Owens has been deployed across different positions, limiting his fantasy impact. As he enters his third year in the AFL, I hope he'll receive more opportunities to excel in what I consider his most valuable position. Last season, Owens only participated in 16% of centre bounce attendances, often serving as the backup ruckman to Marshall. However, with Jack Hayes set to return from an ACL injury, there's optimism that Owens will have greater freedom to make an impact this season.
Josh Rachele
GDS Position: Forward
CBAs 2023: 23%
Expected CBAs 2024: 45%
In a previous blog, I discussed Josh Rachele, but I believe he deserves a place on this list as well. Like others I've mentioned, he's entering his crucial third season, typically marked by significant growth in fantasy scoring. What excites me most about Rachele is the trajectory of his career. His centre bounce attendances (CBAs) have steadily increased from 6% to 23% over his first two seasons. My intuition tells me he'll transition into more of a midfielder this year, which should substantially boost those numbers. If this transition occurs, I anticipate Rachele becoming one of the standout players in GameDay Squad for 2024. The only problem I can foresee is competition from the likes of Keays and others.