Round 1 Preview: Everything You Need To Know To Dominant The Round

Round 1 is here. Nine games, five different venues, and the first real week of picking your squad under full information. The Opening Round gave us five games worth of data to work with, and the numbers are already telling some interesting stories heading into the weekend.

Here is what the data says about who to pick, who to avoid, and where the best value sits across the slate.

Opening Round: What the Numbers Told Us

The two highest-scoring games of the Opening Round both came on the final day. The Brisbane vs Western Bulldogs clash at the Gabba averaged 87 GDS per player, with the St Kilda vs Collingwood game at the MCG matching that almost exactly. Scoring at ENGIE Stadium in the GWS vs Hawthorn game was noticeably tighter, sitting around 76 per player.

Collingwood's backline was the standout unit of the week. Josh Daicos (171 GDS), Dan Houston (141) and Brayden Maynard (139) all posted big numbers against St Kilda, with their defensive structure allowing each of them to run freely and accumulate. That kind of output from a defensive group does not happen by accident and it is worth noting as Collingwood now face Adelaide in Round 1.

On the other side of the ledger, Hawthorn's defenders were well below their usual levels at ENGIE Stadium. Karl Amon managed just 65 GDS against a GWS structure that gave him very little room to work with. He is well worth revisiting this week at a more familiar MCG environment.

Ed Richards had the blow-up of the round, posting 162 GDS on 24 kicks and two goals for the Bulldogs at the Gabba. Players don't back up performances 60% above their season average in the very next game. Treat it as a ceiling and move on.

The Week Ahead: Key Themes

Four of the nine Round 1 games are at the MCG. Historically, that venue rewards kick-dominant half-backs and high-disposal midfielders more than almost anywhere else. It is no coincidence that most of the week's premium targets land in MCG fixtures.

Eight teams sat out the Opening Round and come into Round 1 fresh: Richmond, Essendon, Fremantle, Adelaide, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Melbourne and West Coast. For most of those players, no Opening Round data means we are working from their 2025 baselines, which is fine for the established names.

The other thing to keep an eye on is Collingwood's defensive group carrying momentum. They face Adelaide, who did not play in the Opening Round. There is a genuine question mark over how Adelaide's forwards will handle a Collingwood backline that is already clicking.

Fixture Breakdown

Carlton vs Richmond — MCG, Thursday 12 March, 6:30pm

Carlton's midfield at the MCG is a good place to start the week. Sam Walsh had a solid Opening Round on 117 GDS despite Carlton losing to Sydney, and coming home to the MCG against Richmond should allow him to find a more natural rhythm. His baseline sits around 107, so the Opening Round was already above that mark.

Richmond come in fresh. Tim Taranto is one of their more reliable scorers and his contested ball game travels well across venues. Jayden Short is the more interesting pick from a GDS perspective. Intercept defenders at the MCG tend to generate above-average kick and mark volume, and Short's role as a run-and-carry half-back suits that environment well.

Patrick Cripps is a watch rather than a select this week. His 68 GDS Opening Round output was well below his 103 baseline, and while the MCG is a better venue for him than the SCG, it is worth seeing his role settle before locking him in.

Targets: Sam Walsh (MID), Jayden Short (DEF), Tim Taranto (MID)

Monitor: Patrick Cripps (MID)

Essendon vs Hawthorn — MCG, Friday 13 March, 6:40pm

This is one of the cleaner picks of the round. Zach Merrett at home at the MCG is about as reliable a selection as the game has to offer. His 120 GDS baseline and the home ground advantage against a Hawthorn midfield that did not perform at its best in the Opening Round makes him a near-mandatory pick. I wouldn't buy too much into the off season drama. He is a star.

Darcy Parish alongside him is similarly well-placed. Both are the kind of midfielders who benefit most from the MCG's open corridors and high-disposal game style.

Karl Amon is the bounce-back candidate of the week. His 65 GDS at ENGIE was a combination of the venue and GWS's defensive structure limiting his run. Back at the MCG where he scored consistently well through 2025, expect a return much closer to his 106 baseline. He genuinely looks undervalued for this game.

James Sicily is a similar story. He was on baseline at ENGIE last week so not a disaster, but the MCG should unlock a more intercept-heavy role that pushes him above that 94 mark.

Targets: Zach Merrett (MID), Karl Amon (DEF), Darcy Parish (MID), James Sicily (DEF)

Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants — Marvel Stadium, Saturday 14 March, 12:15pm

Marcus Bontempelli had a quieter Opening Round than his name suggests, posting 110 GDS below his 129 baseline at the Gabba. Home at Marvel against a GWS side he has historically performed well against is the reset he needs. This is a classic case of a high-baseline player due for a bounce back.

Tim English was excellent at the Gabba last week (124 GDS) and faces a GWS ruck setup that has historically allowed dominant ruckmen to run up big hitout and marking numbers. He looks well set to back it up.

On the other side, Lachie Whitfield was well below his 131 baseline at ENGIE last week. He functions best when given space to run off half-back, and Marvel's dimensions may actually suit him better than ENGIE did. He is a bounce-back candidate with a high ceiling.

Leave Ed Richards alone this week. A 162 GDS from the Gabba is not a springboard, it is a ceiling.

Targets: Marcus Bontempelli (MID), Tim English (RUK), Lachie Whitfield (DEF)

Avoid: Ed Richards (MID)

Geelong vs Fremantle — GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 14 March, 3:15pm

Geelong's midfielders were strong at Carrara last week and GMHBA is their home fortress. Max Holmes was exceptional at 126 GDS and his 122 baseline means last week was not an outlier, it was a statement of his current form. He is one of the best MID selections of the round.

Tom Stewart is worth revisiting after a quieter 92 GDS at Carrara. GMHBA tends to generate more contested, compact play than Carrara's open surface, which historically produces more intercept work for Stewart. His 104 baseline feels achievable here.

For Fremantle, Andrew Brayshaw is the anchor pick. His 117 GDS baseline holds regardless of venue, and his clearance game does not need home conditions to fire. Caleb Serong is similarly reliable. Both are safe selections in a game where Geelong's home advantage is real but Fremantle's midfield quality is not easily suppressed.

Targets: Max Holmes (MID), Andrew Brayshaw (MID), Caleb Serong (MID), Tom Stewart (DEF)

Sydney vs Brisbane — SCG, Saturday 14 March, 6:10pm

The SCG historically rewards midfielders and this game has two deep, high-quality midfields going head to head.

Josh Dunkley is the standout pick. He scored 83 GDS in the Opening Round at the Gabba, well below his 123 baseline, and comes into the SCG as one of the more undervalued options of the week given where his form line actually sits. He is a clearance-driven midfielder who will get his numbers in a contested game at the SCG.

Errol Gulden was superb last week at 141 GDS, but that was driven in part by 11 tackles which is not necessarily a repeatable stat line. Expect something closer to his 123 baseline this week. He is still a strong pick, just not a ceiling play this round.

Lachie Neale came out of the Opening Round on 132 GDS, above his 111 baseline, which is good form to carry into a tougher game at the SCG. His clearance numbers were strong enough that it was genuine performance rather than a statistical anomaly.

Targets: Josh Dunkley (MID), Lachie Neale (MID), Errol Gulden (MID)

Collingwood vs Adelaide — MCG, Saturday 14 March, 6:35pm

Collingwood's backline carries significant momentum into this game. Dan Houston (141 GDS) and Brayden Maynard (139 GDS) both came out of the Opening Round well above their baselines, and the MCG environment is where intercept defenders from Collingwood have historically performed at their best.

Nick Daicos posted 161 GDS last week on genuine volume, 25 kicks, 16 handballs, seven marks. That is not a fluke. His 127 baseline may actually be conservative based on how his role is being used this season. He is a premium MID pick for Round 1.

For Adelaide, Jordan Dawson is the safe anchor. His 2025 baseline was one of the highest in the competition and the MCG suits his game regardless of what is happening around him.

The players to steer clear of are Adelaide's forwards. Collingwood's defensive structure conceded the fewest points to opposition forwards across all five Opening Round games.

Targets: Nick Daicos (MID), Dan Houston (DEF), Brayden Maynard (DEF), Jordan Dawson (MID)

Avoid: Ben Keays (FWD)

North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide — Marvel Stadium, Sunday 15 March, 12:10pm

Neither team played in the Opening Round so we are working from 2025 baselines here. Marvel's dimensions historically push forward scoring up, which makes Harry Sheezel an interesting pick. He operates in a near-midfield role and his 2025 numbers put him as the top-scoring forward in the competition. For Port, Zak Butters is the reliable engine-room pick. He comes in fresh with a strong 2025 baseline and Marvel suits his disposal-heavy game.

Targets: Harry Sheezel (FWD), Zak Butters (MID)

Melbourne vs St Kilda — MCG, Sunday 15 March, 2:15pm

Max Gawn is the easiest ruck selection of the round. His 127 GDS baseline is elite, the MCG is his home ground, and St Kilda's ruck situation is less settled following Rowan Marshall's limited Opening Round. Confirm Marshall's fitness before finalising your ruck selections. He will likely miss with concussion protocol.

Jack Sinclair had a remarkable Opening Round at 144 GDS, well above his 122 baseline. The MCG should sustain above-average output for him. His near-midfield role generates the kind of kick and mark volume that the venue rewards. He is arguably the best DEF pick of the round.

Jack Steele is a reliable mid-tier MID pick for Melbourne. His contested game travels well and the MCG suits his tackle-and-clearance profile.

Targets: Max Gawn (RUK), Jack Sinclair (DEF), Jack Steele (MID)

Gold Coast vs West Coast — People First Stadium, Sunday 15 March, 5:10pm

Christian Petracca was outstanding in the Opening Round at 143 GDS, 39 points above his 104 baseline. That kind of output needs some regression applied, but his role in Gold Coast's system looks genuinely expanded. Against a West Coast side that will concede territory, another strong game is very possible. He is a FWD who plays like a midfielder.

Noah Anderson and Touk Miller are both reliable selections. Anderson posted 117 GDS in the Opening Round and his clearance game is well suited to another home fixture. Miller is the steadier of the two at 108 GDS baseline and consistent across venues.

Targets: Christian Petracca (FWD), Noah Anderson (MID), Touk Miller (MID)

Top Picks by Position

• Defenders: Jack Sinclair, Lachie Whitfield, Karl Amon, Josh Daicos, Jayden Short, Tom Stewart

• Midfielders: Nick Daicos, Josh Dunkley, Zach Merrett, Max Holmes, Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Neale

• Rucks: Max Gawn, Tim English

• Forwards: Christian Petracca, Harry Sheezel

Players to Avoid

• Ed Richards (MID, Western Bulldogs): 162 GDS last week was a ceiling blow-up. Do not chase it.

• Ben Keays (FWD, Adelaide): Collingwood's defensive structure is the toughest matchup in the competition for opposition forwards right now.

• Patrick Cripps (MID, Carlton): His role needs to clarify after a 68 GDS Opening Round before he is worth locking in.