Round 2 Preview: The GameDay Squad Edge

Round 2 arrives with genuine complexity. Seven games across four days, two massive PrimeTime matchups, and a handful of availability questions that will shape how the round plays out.

The biggest storyline coming in is not a hot form line or a venue quirk. It is an injury, specifically the confirmed absence of Errol Gulden from Sydney's midfield for roughly four months following shoulder surgery. That single development reshapes the MCG Thursday night opener more than any other variable.

Beyond Gulden, the data points toward home ground dominance as the leading theme of Round 2. The projection landscape this week is heavily tilted toward players at their home fortresses, with Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, and West Coast (surprisingly) also at Optus shaping as the clearest upside scenarios. When visiting teams travel to Perth or play on the big South Australian ovals against settled home midfields, the headwind is consistent and the data reflects that.

Here is what the data is pointing toward across all seven games.

Hawthorn vs Sydney Swans

MCG, Thursday 19 March, 6:30pm AEST (PrimeTime)

Player	Position	Team	Direction / Band	Confidence
Jai Newcombe	MID	Hawthorn	Up / Slightly above	High
Josh Ward	MID	Hawthorn	Up / Slightly above	Medium
James Sicily	DEF	Hawthorn	Up / Slightly above	Medium
Chad Warner	MID	Sydney Swans	Flat / Around baseline	Medium
Jake Lloyd	MID	Sydney Swans	Up / Slightly above	Medium
Isaac Heeney	MID	Sydney Swans	Uncertain / Test	Low (availability risk)

Matchup Context

This game has changed shape significantly from what you might have expected heading into the round. Gulden is gone for the season with shoulder surgery, and Isaac Heeney is listed as a test after leaving Round 1 with hamstring tightness. Multiple sources have him as almost certain to miss. Hawthorn, by contrast, are in great from after thumping Essendon by 62 points in Round 1. The midfield balance has tilted firmly toward the Hawks.

Thursday night at the MCG is a venue Hawthorn's on-ballers have historically exploited well. Newcombe's clearance game is perfectly suited to that environment, and coming in fresh after missing through suspension means he carries no fatigue from the opening fortnight.

Key Targets

Jai Newcombe (MID, Hawthorn) is my standout selection from this game. He leads a side that is in commanding early season form, faces a Sydney midfield that is genuinely depleted, and the MCG historically rewards the kind of contested, clearance-dominated game that is Newcombe's bread and butter. The projection sits slightly above his baseline with high confidence, and I think that accurately reflects what is on offer.

James Sicily (DEF, Hawthorn) is the bounce-back candidate I like most from the PrimeTime slate. His Opening Round at ENGIE Stadium was below his best but that venue has never particularly suited his game. The MCG is different. The open space generates more intercept opportunities, and without Gulden supplying the Sydney forward line as cleanly, the delivery into their attacking half may be more erratic. Sicily's mark and kick numbers tend to lift at the MCG specifically.

Jake Lloyd (MID, Sydney Swans) is a quiet beneficiary of Gulden's absence that the data supports. With the outside role opening up and the MCG well-suited to his disposal-heavy game, Lloyd profiles as a slightly above-baseline projection with medium confidence. He is not a headline pick, but for those needing Sydney coverage he is the safer option from their squad.

Players to Avoid

Isaac Heeney (MID, Sydney Swans) is the selection dilemma of the round, and in most situations the answer should be to avoid him until team sheets confirm he is playing. A five-day turnaround from a hamstring concern is a genuine risk. Even if he does play, clubs manage these situations conservatively early in the season and his output may be restricted. The low confidence projection reflects real availability uncertainty, not just caution. Do not build your side around him.

Chad Warner (MID, Sydney Swans) sitting at around-baseline is not a target recommendation. He absorbs more load with Gulden gone, but that cut both ways. A heavier workload in a game against a very strong Hawthorn midfield is not the same as an easy scoring environment. Warner's quality is not in question, but the matchup context compresses his ceiling here.

Positional Insights

This game is a DEF and MID game for Hawthorn. Sicily and any run-and-carry half-backs from the Hawks will benefit from the MCG environment and the reduced quality of Sydney's forward supply. For Sydney, forward scores may be lower than usual given the midfield disruption upstream.

Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs

Adelaide Oval, Friday 20 March, 6:40pm AEST (PrimeTime)

Player	Position	Team	Direction / Band	Confidence
Jordan Dawson	MID	Adelaide Crows	Up / Slightly above	High
Marcus Bontempelli	MID	Western Bulldogs	Up / Slightly above	High
Rory Laird	DEF	Adelaide Crows	Flat / Around baseline	High
Izak Rankine	FWD	Adelaide Crows	Up / Slightly above	Medium (return risk)
Ed Richards	MID	Western Bulldogs	Down / Below baseline	High (avoid)

Matchup Context

Adelaide Oval on a Friday night, two teams in good form, and two of the best midfielders in the competition going head to head. Marcus Bontempelli for the Bulldogs and Jordan Dawson for the Crows both project well at a large oval that suits high-disposal games. Neither of those projections is dependent on the other team being weak. The Bulldogs midfield has been strong through the opening fortnight and Adelaide won convincingly against Collingwood in Round 1.

The X-factor is Izak Rankine. He returns from a five-week suspension which adds genuine depth for Adelaide, and the question is how quickly he finds his rhythm.

Key Targets

Jordan Dawson (MID, Adelaide Crows) at Adelaide Oval is as clean a projection as you will find this week. His premium 2025 baseline, his ability to exploit the large oval with his kick-heavy game, and the positive team environment following Adelaide's Round 1 win all align in his favour. Rankine's return adds another genuine target which helps the team structure around Dawson's connecting role. I think the projection sitting slightly above his baseline with high confidence accurately reflects the setup.

Marcus Bontempelli (MID, Western Bulldogs) is a similarly clean selection. His Opening Round at the Gabba was below his 129 baseline but the Bulldogs have been strong since, and Adelaide Oval's dimensions genuinely suit his game. He is the kind of midfielder who benefits from space and kick opportunity, and a large oval against a team he has historically performed well against supports a slightly above-baseline projection.

Rory Laird (DEF, Adelaide Crows) is the steady choice here. He is not a ceiling play, but his GDS floor at Adelaide Oval is as reliable as any defender in the competition. The Western Bulldogs forward line is decent, which means Laird's defensive positioning is active, but his role generates consistent disposal and tackle numbers regardless. The projection sits around his baseline with high confidence.

Players to Avoid

Ed Richards (MID, Western Bulldogs) is the avoid of the round, full stop. The Round 1 blog was explicit about this. His 162 GDS Opening Round at the Gabba was flagged as a ceiling blow-up, not a form indicator, and the regression signal from that outlier is as strong as anything in the data this week. Adelaide Oval against an organised defensive structure featuring Rory Laird is not a venue or matchup that replicates the Gabba conditions that drove that output. The projection has him below baseline with high confidence. That is a meaningful signal and I would heed it.

Izak Rankine (FWD, Adelaide Crows) is intriguing but carries genuine uncertainty. Suspension returnees often need a game to fully settle back into match rhythm, and without 2026 data to anchor his form there is real projection ambiguity here. The upside ceiling is legitimate if he fires straight away, but basing your forward selection on a player's first game back from a five-week ban is a risk most experienced GDS coaches will not take.

Positional Insights

The MID pool from this game is the strongest of the round. Both Dawson and Bontempelli project well with high confidence, and neither depends on the opposition being weak. For defenders, Laird is a set-and-forget selection at this venue. Forward coverage from this game is uncertain and most coaches will look elsewhere for their selections.

Richmond vs Gold Coast SUNS

MCG, Saturday 21 March, 12:15pm AEST

Player	Position	Team	Direction / Band	Confidence
Tim Taranto	MID	Richmond	Up / Slightly above	Medium
Jacob Hopper	MID	Richmond	Flat / Around baseline	Medium
Dion Prestia	MID	Richmond	Up / Slightly above	Medium (return risk)
Noah Anderson	MID	Gold Coast SUNS	Flat / Around baseline	Medium
Touk Miller	MID	Gold Coast SUNS	Flat / Around baseline	High

Matchup Context

Two teams coming from different preparation rhythms. Richmond played in Round 1 and have genuine momentum after a strong performance. Gold Coast had the Round 1 bye (West Coast) after winning the Opening Round against Geelong, which means they carry reasonable form with some uncertainty. The MCG at midday is a medium-scoring environment historically, and neither team has a dominant structural advantage over the other at this venue.

The most interesting fantasy storyline here is Dion Prestia's return from injury. Coming back to the MCG, where he has historically produced some of his best numbers, is about as favourable a comeback environment as you can ask for, just ensure he’s not lining up in the VFL.

Key Targets

Tim Taranto (MID, Richmond) is my preferred selection from this game. He comes in with Round 1 form established, the MCG suits his contested clearance-based game, and Gold Coast's midfield while talented does not present the same defensive challenge as the top-tier opposition. The projection sits slightly above his baseline with medium confidence, which feels appropriate for a midfielder who does not often disappoint at his home ground.

Noah Anderson (MID, Gold Coast SUNS) and Touk Miller (MID, Gold Coast SUNS) are both around-baseline projections. Anderson's Opening Round form was strong at 117 GDS and Miller is one of the most consistent midfielders in the competition at his baseline. Neither is a ceiling play at the MCG on the road, but both provide solid floor coverage for GDS coaches who need Gold Coast representation.

Players to Avoid

There are no hard avoids from this game specifically. Jacob Hopper (MID, Richmond) sits around baseline which is fine. Nothing here screams selection danger but equally nothing screams ceiling play.

Positional Insights

This is a relatively flat game for fantasy purposes. The MID selections here are safe rather than exciting. If you are looking for upside this round, it comes from the home fortress games at Optus and Adelaide Oval rather than from the midday MCG fixture.

GWS GIANTS vs St Kilda

ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 21 March, 3:15pm AEST

Player	Position	Team	Direction / Band	Confidence
Stephen Coniglio	MID	GWS GIANTS	Up / Slightly above	Medium
Kieren Briggs	RUK	GWS GIANTS	Up / Slightly above	Medium (Marshall-dependent)
Rowan Marshall	RUK	St Kilda	Flat / Around baseline	Low (availability risk)
Jack Macrae	MID	St Kilda	Down / Below baseline	Medium (venue/matchup)

Matchup Context

GWS are coming off a heavy Round 1 loss to the Western Bulldogs and return home to ENGIE Stadium motivated to respond. St Kilda are 0-2 to open 2026, having lost the Opening Round and Round 1. The Giants are the clear favourites here and their midfield should get good quality ball in a home game against a struggling opponent. The ruck situation is the pivot point for this game's fantasy value.

If Rowan Marshall misses through concussion protocols, the ruck matchup tips heavily in favour of Kieren Briggs. If Marshall plays, both ruck projections soften back toward baseline. This is one of the more binary availability decisions of the round.

Key Targets

Stephen Coniglio (MID, GWS GIANTS) brings the veteran stability to a GWS side that will want to impose themselves at home after last week. ENGIE historically suits GWS midfielders who know the ground, and St Kilda's midfield pressure ratings have not been strong in 2026. Slightly above baseline with medium confidence is reasonable.

Kieren Briggs (RUK, GWS GIANTS) is the conditional selection of the round. If Marshall is confirmed absent, it helps Briggs becomes one of the best ruck selections on the slate. He knows ENGIE well, GWS are the better team, and a reduction in rotation for TDK is exactly the scenario that lifts a ruckman from baseline to ceiling. Watch the team sheets carefully.

The likes of Whitfield, Ash, Callaghan, NWM, Sinclair and Flanders should also be targets.

Players to Avoid

Jack Macrae (MID, St Kilda) faces a difficult environment. ENGIE Stadium's dimensions work against outside midfielders and Macrae's game is built on finding uncontested space and accumulating disposals. That is harder to do on a tighter ground against a motivated home team. The projection has him below his baseline with medium confidence. Combined with St Kilda being 0-2 and the structural disadvantage of the venue, this is one to leave in the selection bin.

Rowan Marshall (RUK, St Kilda) is a genuine avoid until confirmed available. Concussion protocol management is unpredictable and the five-day preparation window between rounds does not provide much time to regain fitness. Even if he plays, limited preparation reduces confidence that he produces his full baseline output. Confirm before selecting.

Positional Insights

GWS midfielders are the play here. The combination of home ground, motivated response after a heavy loss, and a struggling opponent makes both Callaghan and Coniglio attractive. The ruck decision is entirely dependent on Marshall's availability.

Fremantle vs Melbourne

Optus Stadium, Saturday 21 March, 6:35pm AEST

Player	Position	Team	Direction / Band	Confidence
Andrew Brayshaw	MID	Fremantle	Up / Well above baseline	High
Caleb Serong	MID	Fremantle	Up / Slightly above	High
Luke Jackson	RUK	Fremantle	Flat / Around baseline	Medium
Jack Steele	MID	Melbourne	Down / Below baseline	Medium (avoid)
Max Gawn	RUK	Melbourne	Flat / Around baseline	Medium (ceiling compressed)
Jake Bowey	DEF	Melbourne	Down / Below baseline	Low (foot concern)

Matchup Context

Fremantle at Optus Stadium against a visiting Melbourne side is one of the most lopsided home-away advantage scenarios of the round. The data consistently shows visiting midfielders to Optus Stadium face a meaningful headwind, and Melbourne travelling to Perth presents exactly that scenario. Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong at their home fortress against a team with a 27 percent win probability according to the modelling are the standout projection pair of the week.

The ruck contest is genuinely elite on both sides. Luke Jackson at his home ground against Max Gawn is one of the more complex fantasy decisions of the round. Neither player should expect to dominate the other, and both projections reflect ceiling compression as a result.

Key Targets

Andrew Brayshaw (MID, Fremantle) is the clearest projection standout of the entire round. His elite 2025 baseline, the Optus Stadium home fortress advantage, and a Melbourne side travelling to Perth as underdogs all align. This is a well above baseline projection with high confidence, and it is supported by multiple independent data signals rather than any single factor. I would have him near the top of my midfield selections this week. He will likely be low on most coaches lists after a disappointing round 1.

Caleb Serong (MID, Fremantle) benefits from the same conditions and his twin-engine partnership with Brayshaw means the GDS scoring opportunity is well-distributed within Fremantle's midfield. Slightly above baseline with high confidence is the projection and I see no reason to question it. The Fremantle midfield double is one of the most compelling pairings of the round. One risk that comes with this is Fremantle changing in scoring patterns in 2026. I still see this combination being very profitable this week.

Players to Avoid

Jack Steele (MID, Melbourne) faces arguably the toughest midfield environment of the round. Away to Perth, facing Fremantle's home fortress midfield that is already performing at a premium level, with the additional headwind of being in a team expected to lose. His tackle-based game gives him a floor, but the ceiling is clearly suppressed. The projection has him below his baseline. I mentioned Steele in Round 1 as a reliable mid-tier selection at the MCG. This week is a very different scenario and the projection reflects that change in conditions accurately.

Positional Insights

The Brayshaw and Serong MID combination from this game is the strongest positional pair of the round. For Melbourne coaches, the ruck position is complicated and the midfield is a tough environment. Defensively, Melbourne's back six will be under pressure from Fremantle's attack which may generate some intercept opportunities for Melbourne defenders, but the overall environment is difficult.

Port Adelaide vs Essendon

Adelaide Oval, Sunday 22 March, 2:15pm AEST

Player	Position	Team	Direction / Band	Confidence
Zak Butters	MID	Port Adelaide	Up / Slightly above	High
Jason Horne-Francis	MID	Port Adelaide	Up / Slightly above	Low
Zach Merrett	MID	Essendon	Flat / Around baseline	High
Darcy Parish	MID	Essendon	Down / Below baseline	Medium (avoid)

Matchup Context

Without Wines, Zak Butters becomes Port Adelaide's primary midfield engine at Adelaide Oval. That gives a meaningful shift in his disposal volume and clearance responsibility, and it comes at the venue where Butters has historically produced his best numbers. Essendon had a very difficult Round 1 against Hawthorn and the structural problems that emerged in that performance are a relevant context for this game.

The large Adelaide Oval dimensions suit disposal-heavy midfielders from both sides, but the home ground advantage and the Wines absence make this a Port-tilted fantasy environment.

Key Targets

Zak Butters (MID, Port Adelaide) is one of the picks of the round. The Wines suspension drives up his midfield load, Adelaide Oval is his home ground and best venue, and Essendon came into this week having been beaten significantly in Round 1. The projection sits slightly above baseline with high confidence. When you get increased responsibility, a favourable venue, and a vulnerable opponent all aligning together, it is worth paying attention.

Jason Horne-Francis (MID, Port Adelaide) also benefits from the Wines absence with more midfield time available in Port's on-ball rotation. His ceiling can be very high but his floor is less reliable than Butters, which is why I categorise him as a low-confidence selection rather than a high-confidence one. The Adelaide Oval dimensions suit his run-and-carry game and the upside is real.

Zach Merrett (MID, Essendon) is the interesting argument from the away side. The Round 1 blog recommended him strongly at the MCG and he delivered. Adelaide Oval is a different venue but its large dimensions still suit his high kick-to-handball ratio game. His individual quality does not depend entirely on his team's success, and the projection sits around his elite baseline with high confidence. He is not a ceiling play this week but he is a reliable floor selection.

Players to Avoid

Darcy Parish (MID, Essendon) is a meaningful step down from his Round 1 position. The Round 1 blog had him as a well-placed MCG selection, and he delivered in that environment. Adelaide Oval as an away ground against a Port Adelaide home defensive structure is a different proposition entirely. Essendon's poor Round 1 performance adds structural risk to his team environment. The projection has him below baseline with medium confidence, which reflects both the venue shift and the team context downgrade. He is a monitor at best.

Positional Insights

Port Adelaide's midfielders are the clear play from this game. Butters in particular is one of the strongest projections of the round. For Essendon, Merrett is the only one I would consider, and even then it is a floor selection rather than a ceiling chase.

West Coast Eagles vs North Melbourne

Optus Stadium, Sunday 22 March, 5:10pm AEST

Player	Position	Team	Direction / Band	Confidence
Harley Reid	MID	West Coast Eagles	Up / Slightly above	High
Harry Sheezel	FWD	North Melbourne	Up / Slightly above	High
Luke Davies-Uniacke	MID	North Melbourne	Up / Slightly above	Medium
Elliot Yeo	MID	West Coast Eagles	Flat / Around baseline	Low (fitness concern)

Matchup Context

West Coast have Harley Reid at their home fortress. North Melbourne have Harry Sheezel, who the Round 1 blog described as the top-scoring forward in the competition from 2025. Both teams are motivated and the game should produce quality individual outputs even if the team contest is weighted toward the home side. The return of George Wardlaw for North strengthens their midfield depth heading into the game.

This is a game where two premium individual performers on opposite sides can both produce above-baseline outputs simultaneously, which makes it one of the more interesting fantasy games of the round for selection purposes.

Key Targets

Harley Reid (MID, West Coast Eagles) at Optus Stadium is one of the cleanest home fortress projections of the round. His development trajectory from 2025 continues into 2026 and North Melbourne, while improving, are not yet at a level where they reliably contain elite midfielders. The projection points slightly above baseline with high confidence. Optus Stadium is where Reid consistently produces his best work and I would back that pattern to continue here.

Harry Sheezel (FWD, North Melbourne) is the forward selection of the round. His near-midfield role generates elite GDS numbers that are largely independent of his team's overall performance, and the matchup against West Coast's defensive unit is genuinely favourable for a player of his quality. Wardlaw and Charlie Spargo returning for North Melbourne strengthens the team structure around him. Slightly above baseline with high confidence is the projection.

Luke Davies-Uniacke (MID, North Melbourne) is worth considering as a differential selection. West Coast's midfield is one of the weaker units in the competition, which creates space for a contested ball accumulator of Davies-Uniacke's quality. North Melbourne are in good form after their Round 1 win over Port Adelaide. The away trip to Optus introduces some venue friction, but the team confidence and favourable opponent are genuine positives.

Players to Avoid

Elliot Yeo (MID, West Coast Eagles) carries too much uncertainty to recommend. Pre-season fitness concerns and a modified training program mean his current role capacity is genuinely unknown. His 2025 baseline is well-established but the gap between that baseline and his current readiness is unclear. He is a monitor, not a select.

Positional Insights

Both sides contribute quality selections from this game, which is unusual. Reid and Sheezel are the headliners. Davies-Uniacke is a solid differential option. The forward position from this game belongs to Sheezel without question.

Round 2 Themes

Home Fortress Dominance

The clearest pattern of Round 2 is the concentration of upside projections in home fortress matchups. Fremantle at Optus, Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, and West Coast at Optus all fall into this category. Visiting teams to Optus Stadium face consistent headwinds that the data has reflected across multiple seasons, and both Perth games this weekend see the visitors as significant underdogs. If you are building a GDS squad this week around projected upside, the home fortress mid selections from these games are where the clearest signals sit.

Toughest Matchups by Position

For midfielders, the difficult environments this week are clear. Parish (MID, Essendon) heading to Adelaide Oval away against Port, Steele (MID, Melbourne) travelling to Perth against Fremantle, and Macrae (MID, St Kilda) at ENGIE against a motivated GWS side all represent meaningful below-baseline projections. Those three are the avoids of the round from a positional matchup perspective.

For ruckmen, Gawn travelling to Perth against Jackson deserves specific mention. The ceiling is compressed even for an elite performer of Gawn's quality, and the projection reflects that even if the floor remains protected.

High Confidence Plays

These projections carry strong data support across multiple independent signals. Role is confirmed, matchup is understood, and the directional signal is consistent. They are not guaranteed outcomes but they represent the most reliable projection foundations of the round.

Player	Position	Team	Band	Key Reason
Andrew Brayshaw	MID	Fremantle	Well above baseline	Optus home fortress; elite baseline
Caleb Serong	MID	Fremantle	Slightly above baseline	Optus home; twin engine midfield
Zak Butters	MID	Port Adelaide	Slightly above baseline	Adelaide Oval; Wines suspension
Marcus Bontempelli	MID	Western Bulldogs	Slightly above baseline	Elite baseline; large oval; strong form
Jordan Dawson	MID	Adelaide Crows	Slightly above baseline	Adelaide Oval home; premium baseline
Harley Reid	MID	West Coast Eagles	Slightly above baseline	Optus home fortress; generational talent
Harry Sheezel	FWD	North Melbourne	Slightly above baseline	Elite forward baseline; West Coast defence
Jai Newcombe	MID	Hawthorn	Slightly above baseline	Depleted Sydney mid
Rory Laird	DEF	Adelaide Crows	Around baseline	Elite floor; Adelaide Oval; stable role
Zach Merrett	MID	Essendon	Around baseline	Premium quality; Adelaide Oval suits his game

Volatile and Risk Plays

These players carry genuine upside but require confirmation or carry meaningful uncertainty. Some are availability-dependent. Some carry first-game-back risk. Understand the uncertainty before selecting.

Player	Position	Team	Volatility Reason
Isaac Heeney	MID	Sydney Swans	Hamstring test on a five-day turnaround; almost certain to miss per multiple sources
Rowan Marshall	RUK	St Kilda	Concussion protocol history; availability for Round 2 is genuinely uncertain
Kieren Briggs	RUK	GWS GIANTS	Projection changes significantly based on whether Marshall plays; Marshall miss is a strong upside signal
Izak Rankine	FWD	Adelaide Crows	First game back from five-week suspension; match rhythm unknown; ceiling could be high but first game back is always uncertain
Dion Prestia	MID	Richmond	First game back from injury; load management possible; form from injury return is uncertain
Max Gawn	RUK	Melbourne	Away Perth trip against Jackson; floor protected but ceiling compressed against home ruckman of this quality
Luke Jackson	RUK	Fremantle	Gawn-Jackson ruck contest is elite both ways; both players' ceilings compressed by each other
Elliot Yeo	MID	West Coast Eagles	Pre-season fitness concerns and modified program; current role capacity is unknown

Top Picks by Position

Position	Players	Note
DEF	Rory Laird, James Sicily	Elite floor; MCG/Adelaide Oval bounce-back
MID	Andrew Brayshaw, Zak Butters, Marcus Bontempelli, Jordan Dawson, Jai Newcombe, Harley Reid, Caleb Serong	Home fortress and matchup-driven projections dominate
RUK	Kieren Briggs (if Marshall misses)	Marshall availability is the pivot point
FWD	Harry Sheezel, Izak Rankine (monitor)	Sheezel is the standout; Rankine carries uncertainty